BCRP: Falling price of copper would be an "overreaction" | Photo 1 of 6 | Economy

A new period of significant economic growth is expected in May, as according to estimates by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) gross domestic product (GDP) would have increased by almost 6%.

In this way, the favorable behavior of economic activity would be repeated, which implied in April an increase of 7.81% of GDP . However, it should be noted that part of this result is the result of a statistical effect, since in April 2017 the expansion was only 0.17% due to the El Niño phenomenon

As reported by the Central Director of Economic Studies of the BCRP. , Jorge Estrella, the evolution of the economy will accompany a healthy improvement of agricultural and manufacturing production.

Sectors
The first would have increased by almost 15% compared to the same month of 2017, while the second would have increased by 10.5%.

Among the advanced results mentioned fishing, which had the highest growth rate, up 27%; while mining and hydrocarbons posted the lowest, at 1.9%.

"All this would indicate that growth in May could be close to 6%. With that we would have a 4.7% increase from January to May ", said Estrella

In the Manufacturing case, the expansion between January and May was 6.8% compared to the same period of 2017. This is a consequence of the increase in primary manufacturing, whose production has increased by 14.2%. The result was explained mainly by the larger fish processing.

To a lesser extent, there was an impact of non-primary manufacturing, which increased by 4.1% due to the gradual recovery of domestic demand and private consumption.

In addition, Estrella pointed out that for this year, a surplus in the trade balance is expected, in which the value of exports would exceed that of imports by US $ 10 billion.

Trade Tension
On the other hand, Estrella dismissed that the tension in trade relations between China and the United States will have a significant impact on the mining sector this year since the fall in the price of Copper at under $ 3.00 per pound would have been the product of an "overreaction" of foreign investors.

"With a price of US $ 3.00 (per pound of copper), any copper mine is profitable" he says, the following months, we expect the price of this metal again close to US $ 3.00.

In addition, he revealed that this situation has not changed the expectations regarding mining investment this year: "I hope that the Angloamerican start of the project". exploration of Quellaveco in the semester ".