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A reduction in gasoline prices could be granted if the special tax on production and services (IEPS) falls, but that implies the risk of opening a "gap" budget, according to experts . This is the only way to influence fuel prices, since they depend to a large extent on international prices.
At the analytical table organized by EL UNIVERSAL, "Will there be a petrol contract with the new government?", The visiting specialists explained that although prices have to do with the costs of production, transportation, distribution and storage, they depend on the reference prices on the global market and the IEPS with which the government taxes the fuels.
On the one hand, the coordinator of the UNAM Business, Economics and Business Analysis Laboratory (LACEN), Ignacio Martínez, said that "if you want to use a social expense and if you reduce the IEPS to the gasoline, we would have a huge gap.This IEPS can be lowered or reduced, no doubt, but we have to be very careful not to have long-term impact. "
Therefore, he added that the IEPS rate can be reduced by 50% to reach but he does not think to remove it because there would be budgetary impacts.
However, he said that the fall could be perceived until January 2019, but that the exchange rate of the peso-dollar In contrast, the energy sector analyst of the Caraiva y Asociados company, Ramses Pech, explained that if the IEPS was eliminated from the gasoline, the prices of 17 pesos per liter Magna and 18.50 for the premium, considering a decrease from 1.5 to two pesos per liter
Rejected budget deficit, as long as a financial reengineering is applied, the price of the Mexican exporting crude is properly defined in the budget. deral, which is about 62 dollars a barrel, and if the covers for energy are taken into account.
Refinery project. Miriam Grunstein, a researcher at Baker Rice University, said, "We have a liberalized price and we are subject to international markets; it is impossible to predict how we will see oil prices in the next three years, and what we see is that they are increasing. "
He warned that if the next administration decided to take the path of price control, About the statements of the virtual elected president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, regarding the fact that from the third year, one or two new refineries will be ready, Grunstein and Pech have agreed that it would take two to three years to get these projects, which means that their construction could start in the next six years.
For Grunstein, "if we build state refineries for gasoline supply and that price control investments.You can not have distortions and expect the market to work because you will realize that the projects that could generate revenue for the government we forget. "
He added that the energy reform was meant to involve private investment, and little" money ". companies have raised their hands to build refineries or participate with Pemex, because of market errors and because refineries generate marginal utility.
Pech adds that the other problem of refineries is that it must be analyzed. enough oil to run, and also if they will generate a short-term return on investment.
For the experts, it is necessary to consider the issue of insecurity and the theft of fuels, crimes that have a high cost and an impact in the investments of private companies
Grunstein has Stated that fuel theft ends up paying consumers themselves in gas prices But, he added, the problem is difficult because organized crime is involved and Pemex executives are also suspected.
Yesterday, the Treasury announced that the IEPS goes from 2.27 pesos to 2.76 pesos for the liter of Magna gasoline today, and for the premium, it goes from 2.75 to 3.16 pesos per liter.
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