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BUENOS AIRES, July 2 (Reuters) – The Mexican peso enters a new phase of greater volatility this week after the victory of leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the presidential vote in Mexico. Investors fear a less friendly approach to the market by the elected government beyond its reassuring message.
* The currency went from saving an improvement to losses in just a few hours after the polls result. López Obrador sought to show guarantees of economic stability, but also mentioned the possibility of reviewing oil contracts, a factor that generated nervousness. [NL1N1TY06M]
* "The long transition period of five months until the president-elect swears on December 1 could be a source of volatility," said Goldman Sachs in a report Friday, anticipating a victory from Lopez. Obrador "There are several questions of political preferences (…) that are not clear."
* Consultancy Eurasia noted: "Mexico was ruled by a technocratic center-right elite since 1982. That era was over. Investors must be prepared to deal with a country where decisions will be more politicized, and market solutions will be less attractive to the new administration. "
* Meanwhile, analyst firm Capital Economics said that" in the coming weeks we will be waiting for guidance on the size and nature of any fiscal stimulus, or signs of a energy policy more interventionist (…) (fiscal) large would increase "market returns.
* For its part, Brazil is experiencing a similar increase in uncertainty and its impact on the real, which is Are approaching the minimums of the year when an opinion poll for the October elections showed the extreme legislator in mind. Jair Bolsonaro on the right.
* The President from the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), Ilan Goldfajn, maintains sales of "swaps" exchange to orchestrate an orderly adjustment of the real, although this strategy involves an increase in the public debt that risks d & # 39; aggravate the credit rating of the country.
* In general, all Latin coins o-US will continue to be subject to short-term domestic factors but also to global factors such as the dollar's escalation in the prospect of further interest rate hikes in the United States. (Additional report of Miguel Ángel Gutiérrez in Mexico)
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