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By Gabriel Burin
GOOD AIRES (Reuters) – The Mexican peso enters a new phase of more high volatility this week after the victory of leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the presidential election in Mexico, investors fearing a less friendly approach to the market by the government. elected beyond his reassuring message.
* The currency has gone from recording an improvement to suffering losses in just a few hours after the election result. López Obrador sought to show guarantees of economic stability, but also mentioned the possibility of reviewing oil contracts, a factor that generated nervousness. [NL1N1TY06M]
* "The long transition period of five months until the president-elect swears December 1 could be a source of volatility," said Goldman Sachs in a report Friday, anticipating a victory from Lopez. Obrador "There are several questions of political preferences (…) that are not clear."
* The Eurasia consultant noted: "Mexico was ruled by a technocratic center-right elite since 1982. That era was over." deal with a country where decisions will be more politicized, and market solutions will be less attractive to the new administration. "
* Meanwhile, the company Analysis Capital Economics said that" in the coming weeks, we will be waiting for indications the size and nature of any fiscal stimulus, or the signs of ". a more interventionist energy policy (…) an important (fiscal) stimulus would lead to "market" returns.
* For its part, Brazil is experiencing a similar rise in uncertainty and its impact on the real, which has approached the minimums of the year when a poll of opinion for the elections from October showed the right-wing legislator Jair Bolso in the lead naro.
* BCB President, Ilan Goldfajn, maintains sales of "swap" swaps to orchestrate an orderly adjustment of the real, although this strategy involves an increase in the public debt that risks d & # 39; In general, all Latin American currencies will continue to be subject to short-term pressures by domestic as well as global factors, such as the dollar's escalation given the prospect of a "dollar". a further rise in interest rates in the United States.
(additional report of Miguel Ángel Gutiérrez in Mexico)
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