Cyclical Indicators Predict Lower Economic Activity



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By the fifth month of the year, the Mexican economy would have had a lower performance, in accordance with the results of the Cyclical Indicators System of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

Inegi figures show that in April, the indicator coincide, which reflects the general state of the economy and consists of six components, was below its trend in the long run, registering a value of 99.9 points, while the trend was 100 points. [19659002] With the above, he broke his straight five-month upward run. Similarly, it only recorded a drop of just 0.01 point over the previous month

"The indicator behavior coincide in April was the result of the l & # 39; evolution of the cyclical components that compose it, "said Inegi

. Global indicator of economic activity, which decreased by 0.07 point compared to March; the indicator of industrial activity, which dropped 0.01 point, and permanent workers of the IMSS, which also fell 0.01 point.

On the other extreme, total imports increased by 0.06 point, while the urban unemployment rate and the index of income from the supply of goods and services retail 0 , 02 point

For its part, the leading indicator – which aims to indicate in advance the rotation points of the indicator coincide – was in May above its long trend term with 100.1 points; However, this resulted in a decrease of 0.12 percentage points compared to the month of April. In this way, this indicator fell by four months.

In this indicator, only the bilateral real exchange rate between Mexico and the United States was the component that showed an advance of 0.17 point, while its other components showed decreases: 1%. price and quotation index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (-0.14); the business confidence indicator (-0.10); the trend of employment in the manufacturing sector (-0.08); the interbank interest rate of equilibrium (-0.06) and the Standard & Poor's index of 500 (-0.06).

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