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Mexico City – The Mexican economy will face the presidential election that will take place tomorrow, July 1, in a scenario of macroeconomic strength.
According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the country's international reserves are in $ 173 billion before the elections, a figure greater than $ 156 billion six years ago and $ 77 billion in 2006. [19659002] In addition, the flexible credit line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of 88 12 years ago, this instrument was not available.
Mariana Ramírez, deputy director of economic strategy at BX +, and Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at Monex, were in agreement. in which the resources available for the country speak of the level of confidence in the economic stability of the country.
In addition, a flexible exchange rate allows it to absorb external shocks and avoid affecting other variables. Although we observe a depreciation, it is not necessarily negative, because in addition to protecting the economy, it also increases the competitiveness of the country, "said Mariana Ramirez. stability to the world, and not using it gives us more strength, "says Janneth Quiroz
Other strengths stand out, such as sustained growth of 2.3% per annum and the rate 3.2% in May
Growth
For specialists, these fundamentals have allowed the Mexican economy to remain afloat despite the multiple external factors that threaten it, whose growth is today. 2.3% per year, according to Inegi data, although this rate is more moderate than in previous years (3.7% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2006). ), "has the advantage that has been more sustained and constant than in the previous six years", according to Mariana Ramírez, BX + has Analyst
"The uncertainty caused by NAFTA has reduced investment and resulted in second-rate effects as jobs that no longer happen, affecting the recent slowdown, "said Janneth Quiroz of Monex.
employment
In the labor market which, before the elections, had an unemployment rate of 3.2% of the labor force, lower than the 4.8% recorded in 2012 and at levels similar to those of 2006, the experts felt that it was another factor of the strength of the Mexican economy
"The advance of formal employment in the sexennium has been remarkable, due to the formalization of jobs before the informal and the generation of others.The big challenge is still the issue of wages, since most new jobs are in the low bracket revenue, "said Mariana Ramírez
.The data on employment show some strength of the domestic market, which has been a mainstay for" Janneth Quiroz
Public Finance
Mariana Ramírez of BX + and Janneth Quiroz de Monex emphasized that the public debt would be exceptional for this sexennate, since before the elections it accounted for 44.2% of GDP. , 9 points higher than before the 2012 elections and 14 points more than in 2006. However, they agreed that the government's reaction to control it was important at the end of the six-year period after the " earning "rating agencies in 2016.
" The increase in debt leaves a narrow margin for the next government, so it should increase revenues if it wants to meet many of its promises of campaign, "said Mariana Ramírez.
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