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The National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) broke its downward trend and, in the sixth month of the year, recorded the first acceleration of 2018 explained, in a wider measure, by the prices of energy. In June, inflation had a monthly advance of 0.39%, with an annual rate of 4.65%, a figure higher than that recorded last May to reach 4.51%, according to the Institute National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
During the same period last year, the INPC advanced 0.25% per month to set the annual measure at 6.31%.
It should be noted that in December 2017, inflation was 6.77% per annum, the highest rate recorded in 17 years; however, in January, it fell to 5.55%, while in February it fell to 5.34%, in March to 5.04% and in April to 4.55%.
According to Delia Paredes, executive director of Banorte's economic analysis, The rise in inflation was explained by persistent pressure on energy prices, which showed a year-over-year change in inflation. 11.4%.
"International energy prices have risen and, in the same vein, here they are responding in the same way, which is putting pressure on inflation, but we could be in the end of these pressures due to the fact that the driving season in the United States is just over. "
The driving season is a season where consumers are using more gasoline than usual, because to long road trips or the use of air conditioning and other tools, which increases the demand for fuel and, therefore, increases the price. Usually, this season covers from April to October.
According to Inegi data, within the energy sources in June, LP domestic gas showed an annual change of 23.9%, followed by octane gas lower by 16.70%, while the high octane index recorded 12.83 percent.
James Salazar, deputy director of CIBanco 's economic analysis, explained that the rise in inflation not only has to do with the price of energy, but also by the price of energy. "In the category of services, housing has also contributed to the rise in inflation, although this is more of a circumstantial situation and not a factor that can persist."
The underlying continues to lower
Within the index, underlying inflation – where goods and services are eliminated, whose prices are more volatile – presented a monthly advance of 0.23%, which instead, at the annual rate, at 3.62% .In light of the above, the underlying price index has recorded seven months of decline, which began last December while it was of 4.87%
"The underlying index data indicates some stability or convergence towards the objective of the Bank of Mexico. It says that there is not a very strong or strong demand, so there is no problem of supply, "said James Salazar.
In the # Underlying inflation, services reached 3.38%, while the commodity at 3.88% .In this last article, Joan Domene, analyst of Invex, explained that in the long run, Persistent weakness of the peso could slow down the slowdown in merchandise which, with the June data, turned seven months down.
refers to non-core inflation, which recorded a monthly advance of 0.84%, while in the annual comparison it was 7.79%.
Exchange rate affected
INPP maintains an upward trend and was 6.95% a year in June
In the sixth month of the year, the National Producer Price Index (NPPI) showed a rebound in its variation and was established at 6.95% per annum, according to pu data With June data, producer prices climbed four consecutive months: from February to March, INPP rose from 3.2 to 3.6% a year, while in April it rose to 4.0% and in May to 5.41%.
"The June reading confirms an upward trend: it went from 5.41% to 6.95%, levels never seen in 12 months.Strong pressures come from sectors such as mining , the construction and manufacture of petroleum products, metal products and transport equipment, "said Alejandro Saldaña, an analyst at Ve por Más.
this post is a result of the international rise in the price of oil, as well as metals and, possibly, the effect of tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum that came into effect in June
James Salazar, deputy director of economic analysis of CIBanco added that another factor that drove prices towards the producer was the exchange rate, which had moved a lot before the presidential elections.
"Producer prices are the first to absorb this type of external shocks, as is the rate of chan and can be seen more in some sectors, such as the manufacturing sector which has grown by 8.93%, "he said.
Despite INPP's progress, Deli An Paredes, executive director of Banorte's economic analysis, said that they saw little correlation or contagion of these price increases at the consumption.
All economic activities recorded annual advances in June, particularly minor, which had a variation in In secondary activities, the mining company had the largest annual increase of 17.39%, followed by construction with 9 , 31%, manufacturing industries with 8.93% and the production, transmission and distribution of electrical energy, water and gas supply which exhibited a variation of 7.95%.
After secondary school, tertiary activities were those with a greater advance of 4.16%. Within these, all activities showed an increase in their prices; however, cultural and sports recreation services had the highest rate of 5.97%, followed by transportation, mail and storage, with an annual change of 5.59%.
With respect to primary activities, which included agriculture, livestock and exploitation, as well as the use of forests and houses, there was a slight variation in 0.01%.
Tertiary activities showed an advance of 4.16%, while primary activities recorded a variation of only 0.01%
In monthly comparison, the INPP recorded an increase of 1, 09%. By groups of economic activities, the primary decreased by 2.13%, while the secondary activities increased by 1.74% and the tertiary by 0.44%
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