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WASHINGTON.
In a few hours, United States will celebrate first parliamentary elections since Donald Trump i'm coming to the White House, an appointment considered as a "Referendum" for him President and in which the Democrats they aspire to get one of Congress Rooms, now in Republican hands.
The 435 places of the House of Representatives more a third of the hundred seats in the Senate will be stakeas well as 36 governorates and hundreds of national and local public posts.
The elections are presented as an opportunity for the Democrats, after the debacle of the 2016 elections, not only have they lost the presidency of the country, but the Republicans have also strengthened their control in both chambers of the Capitol.
In the past few months, during which there have been primaries, the Republicans who have won the most wins have been those close or supported by Trump, while Democrats have seen how many new faces more diverse and more women have won to win. Battle of November 6th.
However, it is not in any case of hegemonic phenomena, but electoral trends that can define the panorama after the elections.
Steffen Schmidt, professor of political science at the University of Iowa, explained that while the number of left-wing candidates has increased compared to the classics of the Democratic Party, the former remain a minority and, s & # They are elected, they will have to work with colleagues. older or more conservative.
This is a phenomenon similar to the so-called Tea Party of the Republican Party.
However, it is hoped that in many districts or states the progressives will connect better with their constituencies. This could help them to gain places. But if anyone too liberal is competing in a conservative district, the party will lose seats, "he added.
I think the progressive movement is strong, but it may not be as important as we would like it to be, "added the expert on the" blue wave "that the Democrats boast about and who, according to the polls, seems to elicit unusual enthusiasm for some mid-term elections.
Low room
Calculations from the New York Times newspaper's data unit suggest that Democrats have an 84% chance of winning the lower house, where they must snatch at least 24 seats for Republicans to reach the majority.
Republicans currently have a comfortable majority (236 seats against 193 Democrats, with six seats vacant).
If Democrats take control of the lower house, the possibility of an indictment against Trump increases dramatically.
They would also head parliamentary committees likely to probe further into the alleged collusion between Trump's campaign team and Russia during the 2016 presidential race.
Senate
However, in the Senate, the feat is more complicated because Democrats must defend more seats than Republicans and, in particular, in conservative states.
Florida, Arizona, Texas, Indiana, Missouri and Montana are some of the territories where polls suggest that the fight between candidates will be tighter, but, according to the same newspaper, it is likely that Republicans will maintain the Senate majority with 82%.
Republicans hold a narrow majority of 51 versus 49.
But the electoral dispute is expected as difficult for the Democrats, as they must defend 26 seats, six of which are threatened, against only nine of the Republicans.
Senators are elected for six years and also sit in January.
But in case the Democrats rise up under the control of the Senate, they could block Trump's possible appointments to the Supreme Court, the federal judiciary or executive positions, because the Upper House has the last word to confirm these appointments .
governorates
The governorates are also mainly controlled by conservatives, and not all are at stake in this election cycle, but Democrats could counterbalance and accumulate more power at the highest executive positions of the state.
According to polls, Democrats will find at least six to eight governors now in the hands of Republicans, while the Conservatives could take one to the Democrats.
A key aspect will be the mobilization of youth and women's votes, two groups that seem to be particularly attached to these elections after Trump's arrival as president and his more radical policy.
The accusations of sexual harassment against newly confirmed Judge Brett Kavanaugh and the behavior of Republican senators in this process appear to have had electoral consequences, creating a pessimistic sentiment among Democrats that allowed Republicans to reduce distances in the ballot boxes.
Whatever the case may be, beyond Trump's approval polls, which barely exceed 40%, the elections will be a test for the management of the tycoon, as well as for the process of rebuilding the Democratic Party. before the presidential elections of 2020.
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