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The Mexican Stock Exchange could see a small rally after the elections next Sunday, while the electoral uncertainty and the bet in favor of the undervalued shares will fade, but it will continue to be influenced by market fluctuations. NAFTA Negotiations and Announcements by the New Government from December
Analysts and experts consulted by Reuters have stated that some investors do not take into account the victory of the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the elections The presidential elections, it remains to be seen whether his coalition will have a majority in Congress, which will define the political counterweight.
"To make an analysis of the scenarios and taking into account the additional seats allocated to each party by the proportional representation, we see less chance that Morena (party of López Obrador) reaches a sim What could to be an upward catalyst for the stock market "JP Morgan said in a report Thursday. ]
The cement giant Cemex, the energy infrastructure company IENova, the dairy products and derivatives Lala, the giant producer of tequila Cuervo and the department store are among the actions envisaged by experts as a growth potential. Liverpool
But the duration of a possible stock market will be defined by what happens in the complex renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. (NAFTA) between Canada, the United States and Mexico, which should resume with more decision in July after the Mexican elections but still under the threat of Washington to abandon the pact. [194590Apubliélecommentaire:19459014]
The IPC S & P / BMV, which accumulates a loss of 5.0% in the year (6.5% in dollars), is trading at a P / U multiple of 16.9 times, which compares negatively with its historical multiple of 22.4 times, according to data from Thomson Reuters Eikon.
The multiple P / U indicates the number of years an investor must wait to recover the investment in an instrument and is used to find out whether the instrument is expensive or cheap compared to its historical average.
"The stock market has been cheap for several months (…) Now, eliminating the political factor, this can make attractive some companies that are not so exposed to NAFTA "said the chief economist of the local. CI Banco, Jorge Gordillo
For others, the Inve rsionistas will be in "wait and see" mode for a while until that they know the plans of the new government, said the CEO of investment for emerging markets of the Swiss bank UBS, Jorge Mariscal.
"The gathering that many anticipate could happen, but I do not think it is supported," he said [19459014
In addition to NAFTA and local elections, other experts believe that it is necessary to weigh the external factors that could affect the local stock market and that must therefore establish a kind of time of waiting .
"I would not go in yet, there are still some problems to be solved," Nikolaj Lippmann, chief emerging markets strategist at Morgan Stanley, told Reuters and monetary policy in the United States.
And according to the technical analyst at Banorte, Víctor Hugo Cortés, the stock market could experience a slight rise and earn about 2,000 points, but that does not represent a change of trend, because this requires something fundamental, such as eliminating uncertainty about NAFTA.
The local stock market, which was estimated at about 47,500 points on Friday, reached its best level of the year in January slightly above the 51,000 points its lowest level at the end of May around 44,500 points.
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