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Relaxing the rules to allow individual negotiations with countries outside the group is one of the axes of the changes that, according to the experts of the foreign trade, could be brought; What does the agreement mean three decades ago?
The winds of change for Mercosur blow. The trade bloc that emerged three decades ago is becoming anachronistic and requires restoration: this does not mean that the death certificate is signed, let alone, but that its members must come together to amend the parent treaty. That's what Paulo Guedes, Brazil's President-elect Foreign Minister Jair Bolsonaro, said: "Mercosur is not a priority," said Paulo Guedes with more or less tact. this week.
The foreign trade specialists consulted by the NATION interpreted the expression of Guedes as a warning that the new Brazilian government considered that the new economy of the twenty-first century required individual trade negotiations between countries and not the slow block structure and heavy which was adequate. Thirty years ago, when the world was different.
Felix Peña, director of the International Trade Institute of the ICBC Foundation, believes that it is clear that circumstances have emerged and that members have the feeling to see how they can adapt Mercosur to the new reality local, regional and global. "It was obvious that we had to wait for the election results in Brazil to know who to talk to, but there is no doubt that the bloc needs a redesign," he said.
But you do not have to tear your clothes up for this need for change, because it is neither more nor less than what is happening in the other blocks as well. "There is a certain consensus in the world that the different integration processes need to be periodically redefined and, in a world that has changed dramatically, I think it's time to sit back and relax. talk, "said Peña.
In the distance, this kind of overrun corresponds to what the European Union (EU) observes with Brexit and what happens in North America with NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement, according to its acronym). And, according to analysts consulted, all this is independent of what the president could have said in recent days.
For Marcelo Elizondo, a specialist in international trade, this is what is happening between the two main Mercosur countries. "Now more fuel is added to the fire with the words of Bolsonaro, who said the blockade was no longer a priority, but that does not mean that Brazil will leave or will propose to dissolve the block. see, "says the specialist.
Now, what would be the main thing to change in this supposed revision? At the time, Uruguay had already stated that it could conclude individual agreements with other countries, which is now expressly prohibited to Mercosur members. What had already been anticipated by the Uruguayans is now endorsed by Bolsonaro, who says that Brazil wants to leave the world to sign bilateral agreements as a country, with autonomy and individuality.
Whatever the case may be, the resolution will not be swift because the process of amending the parent treaty may take a year and the parliament of each member country must then approve that decision. "We will have to gather the opinions of different sectors to see what has changed, but what is most talked about is that Mercosur binds its members and prevents them from negotiating individually with other countries", said Peña.
This one
aggiornamiento That would not hurt Argentina, because when we thought about the bloc 30 years ago, its economy and Brazil's were more similar than today and were therefore designed to be two of the most relatives. "In addition, it was the fashion model, like the EU is that globalization is such today that we must reach third markets, which technology encourages, however", has he declared. Elizondo
The Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Production insists that much work is being done to optimize the functioning of Mercosur as a bloc. "We have already made joint progress in improving their integration and in other aspects, such as the elimination of double taxation of services exports and the relaunch of negotiations such as the the European Union. " We are also progressing in the agreements with EFTA [Asociación Europea de Libre Comercio, según sus siglas en inglés], Canada, South Korea and Singapore, among others, "said Marisa Bircher, Secretary of Foreign Trade.
Bircher says that we are working on an insertion that allows us both to stimulate and accelerate regional integration and to improve the quality of this insertion and to transform it into a tool for transformation in order to from a developed and competitive economy. "Economic and trade agreements are instruments that help to achieve this goal, strengthening both Argentina and Mercosur," said the official.
Elizondo's vision for agreements with other blocs is, however, less optimistic. "If the motherboard of the bloc is reformed, I think Argentina will be closer to signing a treaty with South Korea or Canada than Mercosur will agree for an agreement with the US." EU, "he says. .
Thereafter, there is not much on the horizon of the negotiations with the other blocs: only the negotiation with EFTA, plus an agreement already signed with Egypt and another with Israel. And there is the still unresolved link between Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance, something that remains to be done.
Figures that worry
It is clear that the block needs a "refreshment", which can be concluded after examining the evolution of intra-zone trade: this year, Argentina will export to Brazil between 10 billion and 11 billion US dollars, or $ 7 billion less than five years ago. This is not all: in 2000, 25% of the total Argentine exports were destined for Brazil, but already in 2012, this figure had dropped to 21% and is even lower (16%).
Abeceb consultancy data shows that the bloc's total exports are also declining since they amounted to US $ 424,479 million in 2013 and amounted to just US $ 324,644 million in 2017 Nevertheless, according to the Ministry of Foreign Trade, it is still an interesting market, with over 260 million people and 4% of global GDP, making it the fifth largest economy in the world. world.
According to Abeceb, the bloc's main export destinations are China, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, India, the Netherlands, Chile, Germany, Japan and Spain. While the main markets of Argentina, which achieved in 2013 an external turnover of 75 963 USD and 58 384 million USD today, are Brazil, the United States, China, the United States. Chile, Vietnam, India, Spain, Algeria, the Netherlands and Canada.
A look at the history of the bloc, born from the Treaty of Asunción (March 1991), shows that he did not live up to his expectations: he did not never solved a dispute resolution process, it did not create autonomous common institutions, it did not materialize. productive integration and failed to maintain a common external tariff too high (15%). Nevertheless, what Raúl Alfonsín, Tancredo Neves and José Sarney have dreamed of having a chance to survive: yes, they must have flexibility and change what is more useful.
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