Oil producers need a "new strategy" to tackle market imbalance



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The main ones oil producing countries They called on Sunday to adopt a "new strategy" based on a production adjustment in order to remedy the imbalance of the market between supply and demand.

Following a meeting in Abu Dhabi with member countries and non-members of the OPEC, the oil producers said they noticed that in 2019 the growth in production would be greater than the global demand and that they would therefore study "the production adjustment options that might require new strategies to balance the market ".

The Saudi Minister of Energy, Jaled al Faleh announced that his country, the world's largest oil producer, would reduce its exports of 500,000 barrels a day in December.

Russia has promised to align with any new agreement limiting production.

In a statement, the producing countries said that after analyzing the current market, they found that in 2019 "the growth prospects indicated a supply superior to the world demand".

The UAE's energy minister, Suheil al Mazruei, stressed that the goal of the group of OPEC countries and non-cartel members was to find a good balance for the market.

"A new strategy is needed (…), it's a reduction in production or something else, but it will not be an increase in production," he said.

The energy ministers of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates participate in the meeting. Russia, one of the leading producers and exporters of hydrocarbons, is the only country not to participate in the meeting of the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).

But at the end of the meeting, no decision was taken. According to several ministers, recommendations should be issued before the plenary meeting of OPEC on December 5 in Vienna.

– No consensus yet –

Due to the increase in production of some of the major oil countries and the fear of a drop in demand, crude oil prices have lost about 20% in one month, after reaching their highest High level in October. in four years.

Since October, Riyadh has increased production to 10.7 million barrels a day, compared to $ 9.9 million in May. About two-thirds of Saudi crude is exported.

Since December 2016, OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia and other non-EU countries, such as Russia, have been implementing an agreement to reduce oil production.

Before the meeting, Khaled al-Faleh said there was still no consensus among the major oil-producing countries to reduce oil production by mutual agreement.

"It is premature to talk about a specific action," he said, in response to a question about the possibility of a reduction in production to limit price drops.

"We have to study all the factors," said Faleh.

For his part, his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak, said that Moscow is committed to respecting the agreements reached in December 2016 and in Vienna in June 2018. "If decisions are made according to the market situation, then Russia will act in coordination with other countries so that the market is balanced and stable, "he said.

The price of a barrel of Brent had fallen below 70 dollars Friday for the first time since April, and the price of a barrel of New York WTI below the 60 dollar mark.

Faleh said Sunday that falling prices had "surprised us", adding that the market had gone from a sense of fear to a shortage to worry about oversupply.

– & # 39; Respect the 100% agreement & # 39; –

Despite signs of weak demand, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq recently increased their crude oil production, while the United States did the same with shale oil.

The recent drop in the price of oil is the product of a drop in demand in China, the largest importer on the planet, which is slowing its growth, according to Cailin Birch, an analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

In addition, US sanctions against Iran, which threatened to reduce world supply and raise prices, were less severe than expected.

Faced with the prospect of US sanctions, Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world's three largest producers, had modified their previous deal in June to limit production.

Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada says officials in Abu Dhabi are discussing "the need to come back to respect the agreement" [de limitar la producción] 100%, "after Washington's decision to grant waivers to eight Iranian oil importers.

"Prices are falling when production from major producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, continues to rise, exceeding the quantities of Iranian barrels lost," he adds.

If producers "do not show their intention to invest the latest increase in production, oil prices could still fall," warn analysts Commerzbank.

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