Private reports received by the Central Bank lowered the estimate of inflation

Why second consecutive month, the Market Expectations Survey (REM) who receives the monetary authority of a set of 55 consultants, research centers in the country and abroad, and the economic departments of 14 banking entities, he threw a slight "disinflation" in the view of 12 months.

Data was expected more than usual by the Monetary Policy Council (Copom) of the Central Bank, Since October, they are president, Guido Sandleris, the vice-presidents Gustavo Cañonero and Veronica Rappoport, the director Enrique Szewach, and Mauro Alessandro, Senior Director of the Monetary Policy and Communication Strategy, who temporarily holds the position of Deputy Director General of Economic Research, because it was decided to take into account to define the trajectory of Leliq rates which is 68.5% per year.

In the extension of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, Copom was committed to hold the Leliq waterline, determined in each daily offer, as part of the Strategy of expansion of the zero monetary baseabove 60% per year until December, "until for two consecutive months the EMN throws disinflation at the rate of two points percentage, in the projected rate over one year ".

In a survey conducted between October 29 and October 31, market analysts' consensus expects inflation to 30.6% year for the next 12 months and for 20.1% year-over-year for the next 12 months.

More recession presents, but less of a future

At the end of 2018, on the contrary, EMN showed an acceleration of the previous projection in 2.7 percentage points, at 47.5% over one year.

As for the economic activity, also adjusted negatively the estimate of this year's recession, to 2.4%; but rThe expected fall for 2019 at 1% has been passed on, about 0.5 percentage point less than in the previous projection.