SHCP expects the dollar to 19.1 pesos by the end of 2018

The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) revised upwards the exchange rate and the price of a barrel of oil for the purpose of estimating the closing of public finances 2018, also estimated that inflation will be above the 3% target set by the Bank of Mexico.

In its report on the economic situation, public finances and public debt for the second quarter of 2018 published this afternoon, the Treasury reviewed the main macroeconomic variables with information available in June.

So that he estimates an average exchange rate of the peso against the reference dollar for the calculations of public finances of 19.1 pesos for a dollar, higher than 18.1 pesos for a dollar of General Economic Policy Criteria (CGPE) 2018 and 18.4 pesos per dollar provided for in the 2019 pre-criteria.

With regard to inflation, he expects that at the end of the year it will be 3.8%, higher than the forecasts of the CGPE 2018 and PreCriterios 2019 of 3 , 0 and 3.5%, respectively. "This forecast is consistent with that published by the Bank of Mexico."

Similarly, he estimates an average annual price of the blend of Mexican oil exports based on the information observed in June and the futures market at $ 58 per barrel. The estimates for 2018 CGPE and 2019 pre-criteria were 48.5 and 53 dollars per barrel (dbp), respectively.

With this revision of the variables, the SHCP maintains that in 2018 the public deficit or public sector financial requirements (RFSP) will reach a level of 2.5% of GDP "congruent" with the trajectory approved by the Congress of the Union.