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The upcoming economic package of 2019 will have a greater influence on the team representing Andrés Manuel López Obrador's government, said Ociel Hernández, economist and chief strategist at BBVA Bancomer.
"I think it will be the first proof for the government of López Obrador, because even though the government of Enrique Peña Nieto still has the responsibility to write the draft by 2019, he must be supported by Morena, "he said during a conference call to discuss his expectations of the Mexican economy, after the triumph of coalition candidate Juntos Haremos Historia
He assured that it will also be a test for the Congress given that Morena will be in the majority, and he will vote not only a budget, but also the law of revenues "It must be a budget in which both teams must to agree, and once the details of the economic package of 2019 are known, investors and analysts will have more clarity on the direction of fiscal policy. "
According to the Federal Budget Act and fiscal responsibility, being a year of trans ition, the economic package of next year will be realized with two teams; the one who represents the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of the current administration and the other will be composed of the party that won the presidential elections.
Both teams must submit the economic package by 2019 by December 15th and must be approved by December 31st of this year at the latest.
In his opinion, Morena and López Obrador will have a strong political capacity to influence the 2019 budget, including to change the laws. "I'm not saying that they are going to do it, the fact is that the capital gained after the elections is huge, and there is no antecedent in Mexico's short democratic life. 39, a president with such a political force. "
PRI, the Third Force
He was surprised by the political situation of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), since it will not have a 20% participation in Congress: "Not only the majority in the Senate and Congress is lost (deputies), but it has become the third party, with few (senators and deputies). "
He stressed that the PRI will also lose its stake in the states where he detained power for several years, which is not unexpected since polls predicted they could win only one of the nine states
"This is a big loss for the PRI, but It is also a loss for the National Action Party (PAN). The most notable situation is that even with the coalitions that it has made with other parties, they will not be able to not confront Morena in both houses. "
A pragmatic team
The economist has Lopez Obrador's team, in which Carlos Urzúa (who will be the secretary of finance) and Gerardo Esquivel (chief economic advisor), will be pragmatic for fiscal policy issues, in the sense that he will seek to maintain discipline budget by reducing spending and not increasing the country's debt.
said Lopez Obrador on Sunday, from what Urzúa said yesterday morning, and from what we spoke with them, is that we are going to see a more pragmatic team of Morena working, and that we will see a more pragmatic López Obrador "
However, he once again insisted on the impact and what it can mean that Morena and his coalition have so much participation in Congress." With this political capital that you have in both chambers, you wait until he sends a conservative budget, which Congress approves of it, and that he starts to be more pragmatic when he talks about energy reform and building energy.
on the one hand, López Obrador, in front of his supporters, expressed that the energy reform would continue its course. "It is important because all he wants, it's reviewing the contracts to make sure that there is no corruption. Finally, from the airport, he said that Urzúa heard that the project will also be continued, what remains to be done is to fund the next steps at the airport. 19659002] "The Obrador team and the party do not want to push this project with more debt."
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