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Potential United States duties on the importation of automobiles and trucks would affect 160,000 jobs in the Canadian automotive industry, where 80% of manufactured vehicles are exported, according to the United States. industrialists and specialists.
the administration of US President Donald Trump decides to impose a 25% tariff for cars, trucks and auto parts, the Canadian dollar could fall from its current 75 cents to parity with the US dollar to 64 cents at the end of 2019.
Lee Insecurity also boosts the production of armored cars in Mexico
The expected losses in the Canadian auto sector include the negative effects of a likely retaliation from the Canadian government.
Brian DePratto, an economist at the TD Bank, estimates that the United States imposes 10% tariffs on auto parts and 25% on auto imports, along with aluminum and aluminum. steel, the Canadian economy would lose 0.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
The negative impact will be most noticeable in Ontario, where the automotive center is located, and where 40% of its exports are manufactured goods, particularly US vehicles and auto parts.
"The 0.4% loss of your national GDP might not be important, but for Ontario, it would be about 2.0%. That would be very important, "said the economist, who recalled that 1.7 million Canadians were working in the manufacturing sector in 2017, including 771,000 in Ontario.
He added that US tariffs on Imports of cars and auto parts would imply the loss of one in ten jobs in the Canadian sector and one in five in Ontario
The possible imposition of duties of up to 25% on imports of cars and trucks by the US The nesting would be "devastating" for the Canadian manufacturing industry, warned Dave Gardner, president of Honda Canada Inc.
"The tariffs of the American cars would be potentially devastating for Canadian manufacturers, "warned Garder.
William Mitchell, Professor of Strategic Management at the University of Toronto told Notimex that the imposition of tariffs on the automotive sector nor d-American would drive down car sales in all three countries, Canada, the United States and Mexico.
Production decisions will not change much since production plans have relatively long horizons.
However, "the costs for consumers will increase and they will have fewer options to buy if they focus solely on the vehicles produced in their country. have a complete set of vehicles from the three countries. "
Mit Chell said the option for Ontario's new governor, Doug Ford, will be to stay close to the federal government, even though both are opposing parties.
He has also suggested to highlight the benefits of trade between the three countries. "
According to a study from the University of British Columbia, the lack of an agreement in the Accord of North American Free Trade (NAFTA) could mean a drop in the Canadian auto industry by 30 to 40%.
For automotive economist Keith Head, President Trump's threat of Impose tariffs on the import of cars is a tactic to "increase the pain", and push the negotiators from Mexico and Canada to the table of NAFTA, whose negotiations would resume in July.
The car parts company Magna Internatio nal announced its intention to transfer its production to China through a joint venture with Beijing Electric Vehicle Co, a subsidiary of Beijing Automotive Industry Holding, to operate a plant in Zhenjiang with a production capacity of 180,000 vehicles per year.
Don Walker, expressed concern about the high costs of doing business in Canada and Ontario in particular, where he has his factory. In this Canadian province, Magna employs 22,000 workers in 51 plants and is one of the companies that provides the most jobs in Ontario.
Walker emphasized the ability of the company, built in 1973, to manufacture conventional, hybrid and electric vehicles. "A great opportunity for the Chinese market."
China, faced with serious pollution problems, has set a target for the year 2025 that 20% of its car sales are "green" energy vehicles.
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