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The presidential candidate who wins yesterday's elections will only have limited room for maneuver. An indebted federal administration with declining public revenues is waiting.
Public debt, as measured by the financial needs of the historical public sector balance, increased from 37.2 percent to 45.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), 2012 to date. In the same period, budget revenues increased from 22.3% to 20.8%, according to data from the Ministry of Finance (SHCP).
"No matter who will lead, the next government will have limited room for maneuver, because the benefits of the 2014 tax reform have already been eroded," said Mario Morales, chairman of the Tax Commission of the United States. Mexican Institute of Public Accountants (IMCP).
SHCP data itself indicate that public revenue obtained Tax payments of citizens by the end of the year would represent 12, 7% of GDP, compared with 13.5% in 2016, because of the benefits of tax reform.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast highlights that collection in Mexico is One of the weakest in the economic bloc (below the average of 34.3%), and even among the countries of Latin America (22.7%).
ón directed by José Ángel Gurría warns weak tax collection (derived, in part, from the many exemptions to What applies to the value added tax) limits the margin of maneuver of the Mexican government which, warns the OECD, will be a determining factor The economic bloc stresses that the narrowness of the public resources will take dimensions more important because in Mexico, the corporate tax is 30%, while the overall trend is down (24% is the average of the OECD countries), so it is necessary to d & # 39; 39, broadening the taxable base of VAT in order to reduce the tax burden on businesses.
Mario Morales, IMCI specialist, agrees that a new tax reform will be one of the main tasks must specify the following administration in order to reduce the RSR and approve the VAT rate; Otherwise, he points out, we should resort to debt, like the current administration.
The public debt (measured by SHRFS) would close this year to 45.5% of GDP, or 8.3 points more than it was received by the current government. However, the highest level was recorded in 2016, when it reached 50.2%, but operating rents that Banco de México delivered helped reverse the trend.
With absolute data, the SHRFSP reached the end of last April a value of nine trillion 301 billion pesos, that is to say three trillion 411 thousand above the five trillion 890 thousand in which the Current federal administration began
Because of the foregoing, it is clear that public finance
MICRO-ECONOMY
Until now, in the In the current federal administration, energy prices have risen more than minimum wages.
Magna and Premium gasoline increased 76 On average, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rebounded 61.6%, but minimum wages only increased by 45.6% ( from 60.66 to 88.36 pesos a day)
or 2.0% (according to estimates from the Institute for Industrial Development and Economic Growth, IDIC), since inflation has reached a historical rate of 6.77% (the largest rebound since 2000), while a wage increase was approved for 2017 Even in January 2017 (when the publication of gasoline and dollar prices entered into force, it reached a record of 21.93 pesos before the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States.) US, the consumer confidence index fell to 68.5 points, which represented his worst level of registration (in 15 years).
Futures markets suggest additional pressures from the changing prices of gasoline and domestic gas. Recent tariffs on imports of certain items from the United States affect prices. Given the above, the convergence of inflation with the goal may take longer than expected. Monetary policy as part of Fed normalization and other challenges As a result, the balance of risks for inflation is trending upward.
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