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They agree that, before the biggest elections in its history, the country has a strong labor market and that public finances are less dependent on oil
The Mexican economy will face the future. 39, presidential election in a scenario of macroeconomic strength. According to the Bank of Mexico, the country's international reserves rise to $ 173 billion before the elections, a figure exceeding $ 156 billion six years ago and $ 77 billion in 2006.
In addition, the flexible line of credit with the International Monetary Fund, of $ 88 billion, is greater than $ 71 billion in 2012. 12 years ago, this instrument was not available.
Mariana Ramírez, Deputy Director of Economic Strategy at BX +, and Janneth Quiroz, Deputy Director of Monex Economic Analysis, agreed that the resources available for the country speak of the level of confidence in economic stability from the country. [1] 9659002] Other strong factors stand out, such as sustained growth of 2.3% per annum and an unemployment rate of 3.2% in May.
THE ECONOMY, STRONG BEFORE CHOOSING
With enough "park" to cope with external shocks, the Mexican economy will face the presidential election with macroeconomic strength.
Data from the Bank of Mexico indicate that the country's international reserves reach $ 173 billion before the elections on July 1, exceeding $ 156 billion. To this must be added the flexible line of credit with the International Monetary Fund which, together with 88 billion dollars, is higher than the 71 billion of 2012, 12 years ago, this instrument was not available.
According to Mariana Ramírez, deputy director of economic strategy at BX +, and Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at Monex, they agreed that the resources available to the country testify to its level of confidence in the economic stability of the country.
In addition, a flexible exchange rate regime allows it to absorb external shocks and avoid affecting other variables. Although we observe a depreciation, it is not necessarily negative because, besides the protection of the economy, it also increases the competitiveness of the country, "said Mariana Ramírez
We have consolidated an instrument such as than the flexible line of credit. . Having it give a signal of stability to the world, and not using it gives us more strength, "says Janneth Quiroz
GROWTH
For scholars, these fundamentals have allowed the Mexican economy to stay afloat despite the multiple external factors that threaten it, whose growth is today 2.3% per year, according to data from INEGI. This rate, although it is more moderate than in previous years (3.7% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2006), "has the advantage that has been more sustained and constant than". in the previous six years, "according to Mariana Ramírez, BX + Analyst
The uncertainty caused by NAFTA has reduced investment and resulted in second-rate effects such as jobs that do not have the same effect. come more and have influenced the recent slowdown, "said Janneth Quiroz de Monex.
EMPLOYMENT
In the labor market which, before the elections, had an unemployment rate of 3.2% of the population economically less than the 4.8% recorded in 2012 and at levels similar to those of 2006, the experts felt that this is another factor. Mexican economy
The growth of formal employment during the sexennium was remarkable, which is due to the formalization of jobs before the informal and the generation of others. The big challenge is still the issue of wages, since most new jobs are in the low income bracket, "said Mariana Ramírez
. Data on employment show some strength of the domestic market, which has been a mainstay for "Janneth Quiroz
Mariana Ramírez of BX + and Janneth Quiroz of Monex pointed out that the public debt would be waiting for this sexennium , since before the elections stood at 44.2% of GDP, 9 points higher than before the 2012 elections and 14 points more than in 2006. However, they agreed that the government's reaction to control it was significant at the end of the six-year period after the "earning" rating agencies in 2016.
The increase in debt leaves a narrow margin for the next government , so she "should increase her income if she wants to achieve many of her election promises," said Mariana Ramírez.Employment has increased the tax base and increased collection, which is positive because it reduces the dependence on oil revenues ", ad clared Janneth Quiroz
Source: Excelsior
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