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Fotoart: Daniel Rey / Sources: Bank of Mexico, Inegi, SHCP, IMSS and IMF
CITY OF MEXICO
The Mexican economy will face the presidential election in a scenario of macroeconomic strength. 19659005] According to the Bank of Mexico, the country's international reserves rise to $ 173 billion before the elections, a figure higher than $ 156 billion six years ago and $ 77 billion in 2006. [19659005]the flexible line of credit with the International Monetary Fund, of 88 billion dollars, is greater than 71 billion in 2012. 12 years ago, this instrument was not available.
Mariana Ramírez, Deputy Director of BX + Economic Strategy, and Janneth Quiroz, Deputy Director of Economic Analysis at Monex, agreed that the resources available for the country speak of the level of confidence in economic stability from the country.
Other factors of resistance were highlighted, such as sustained growth of 2.3% per year and the vacancy rate of 3.2% in May.
Economy, Strong Before the Elections
With enough "park" to cope with external shocks, the Mexican economy will face the presidential election with macroeconomic strength.
Data from the Bank of Mexico indicates that the country's international reserves reached $ 173 billion before the July 1 elections, more than $ 156 billion 6 years ago and $ 77 billion in 2006.
To this must be added the flexible line of credit with the International Monetary Fund, which with 88 billion dollars, is greater than 71 billion in 2012, while 12 years ago this instrument does not have a credit line. was not available.
According to Mariana Ramírez, deputy director of economic strategy at BX +, and Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at Monex, agreed that the resources available for the country speak of their level of confidence in the economic stability of the country.
Having a flexible exchange rate allows it to absorb external shocks and prevent it from affecting other variables. Although we observe a depreciation, it is not necessarily negative because, besides the protection of the economy, it also increases the competitiveness of the country, "said Mariana Ramírez
consolidating an instrument such as the flexible line of credit … to give a signal of stability to the world, and not to use it gives us more strength, "says Janneth Quiroz
GROWTH
For specialists, these fundamentals have allowed the Mexican economy to remain afloat with the multiple external factors that threaten it, whose growth is now 2.3% per year, according to data from INEGI. , although it is more moderate than in previous years (3.7% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2006), "has the advantage that has been more sustained and constant than during the past year." of the previous six years ", according to Mariana Ramírez, BX + Analyst
The uncertainty caused by NAFTA has Reduced investment and resulted in second order effects, such as jobs that do not happen anymore, and that affect the recent downturn, "said Janneth Quiroz, of Monex.
In the labor market which, before the elections, had an unemployment rate of 3.2% of the economically active population, lower than the 4.8% recorded in 2012 and at levels similar to those of 2006, experts expressed another strength factor of the Mexican economy
The advance of formal employment during the sexennium was remarkable, which is due to the formalization of jobs before the informal and to the generation of others. The big challenge is still the issue of wages, because most new jobs are in the lowest income brackets, "said Mariana Ramírez
The employment data show some strength of the domestic market, who was a mainstay for Janneth Quiroz
Public Finance
Mariana Ramírez of BX + and Janneth Quiroz of Monex pointed out that the public debt will be waiting for this sexennium, since before the 39 Election it is located at 44.2% of GDP, 9 points higher than before the 2012 elections and 14 points higher than in 2006. However, they agreed that the government's reaction to control it has was important at the end of the sexenio after the "hit" ear of the rating agencies in 2016.
The increase in debt leaves a narrow margin for the next government, so she should increase her income if she wants to fill in good name of its election promises, "said Mariana Ramírez
. The formalization of employment has increased the tax base and increased the collection, which is positive because it reduces the dependence on oil revenues, "said Janneth Quiroz.
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