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The value of the
dollar
sets a new record yesterday on the local market to exceed $ 29 on sale to the public (closed at $ 29.57 on average) after touching the $ 30 in a day when the market seemed to remind the government that the race there is not over and that mistrust towards the future of the economy is increasing.
Two tests: one, the new 3% decline that the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange has depreciated (against the rest of the stock markets) to raise it to 14% of their losses in the week despite their recent requalification. On the other, the 2.3% slide of Argentine debt bonds operating abroad, which increased its yield to 9.5% and raised the country risk to 613 points, its highest level in three years.
The nominal maximum of the exchange rate, which brought the devaluation to 3.1% on the day and brought it to 15.8% in the month, to 42% in the two-month period and to 52.5% in the same period. which goes from 2018, confirms that the peso is today the most depreciated currency in the world. Its collapse yesterday was recorded in a day that showed the stability of the dollar against other emerging currencies, but weakened against similar currencies: it dropped 0.9% according to the
Dollar Index, a parameter that measures the euro, the yen, the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc
And it was also checked at the end of one turn when the Central Bank (BCRA) returned to intervene on the spot after several days of not doing so to try to defend its value, reinforcing the usual supply of currencies that the Treasury has been doing since it's received IMF funds to obtain pesos to cover its deficit. provide liquidity to a market that has come to this situation by a marked imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency.
All confirms that, although global climate change is getting more complicated, the crisis is not slowing down for domestic emissions. "Argentina is more punished than other countries and it's because of local problems," said economist and former finance minister Daniel Marx to explain the impact on the country's economy. 39, real economy.
"It is true that not only does the peso fall in. The problem is that our currency is falling at a faster pace and does not stop accelerating," observes economist Alejandro Minteguiaga. "But in a rarefied global context, with the fall of soybean and the level reached by the twin deficits of Argentina, it must be clear that intervening on the foreign exchange market is like paddling in dulce de leche" he says.
Colleague and consultant Alejandro Bonavita uses a graphic image to explain the situation: "The world lit a lighter when we were bathed in naphtha," he says. "Given this, the only local plan is to offer the funds provided by the IMF, this is not enough, Argentina needs dollars and you do not see the ability to generate them: foreigners will buy dollars and buy them that the peso does not pay them and promises to yield even less, "he said, alluding to the impetus that devaluation gives to inflation
" That shows that the oxygenation that the government had obtained with the changes of the BCRA did not involve any change. "The government was again entrusted to a market that reads agreement with the IMF as not filled for an administration that aspires to have chances in 2019. It is say, investors do not believe in an adjustment that orders the accounts, "said Martín Alfie, of the consulting firm Radar.For Guido Lorenzo, ACM economist, it is corroborated that "bullfighting did not occur, but that it was squatting. "
" You have to review the revenue because the rate hike was not effective and the auctions were not. no, what remains to know, what kind of change is perceived as expensive by the market: it was not the $ 25 Sturzenegger and now it seems that this value exceeded $ 30, "at he continued
.The new dollar jump was recorded in a higher wheel (1017 million US dollars was traded) due to the maturity of the futures contracts, which was significant because the BCRA contributed to increase its volume this month after almost 3 years of abstinence.This pesos derived from this place to money and added pressure on the dollar. "The reaction was in principle erratic, with only 5 million US dollars exploited, the dollar had risen by one peso, I understand that they are in favor of the issue, but you can not let them create a problem so small that it will cost you later. more disarmed, "objected financial analyst Christian Buteler.
The entity decided to intervene after noon when the note had already taken off: 300 million US dollars were sold, when the system was loaded with similar positions.This helped the ticket price, which had reached a high of $ 29.45 at the wholesale level (almost $ 28.10), began to converge towards the value of $ 28,9567 that appeared in this auction (made after the Treasury sold the expected $ 150 million to $ 29.12) and continued to rise slightly until the end of the day at $ 28.85.
In the BCRA they celebrated the outcome of this intervention because their idea is not to impose price, but dose the market trends. "The problem is that 39, the day before yesterday the biggest sale of the Treasury was read in response to a requirement of the BCRA to try to con to put the dollar down and it was not like that: they sold more because they needed more pesos to pay the bonuses. the agreement with the IMF, which proposed this mechanism since other countries had used it successfully to finance the state in a context where they wanted to help balance the market at the same time, "they explain in the BCRA.
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