The Mexican economy will grow less the first year of AMLO's government: Banorte

Next year, 1.8% lower economic growth is expected, because traditionally it decreases less the first year of a new government, estimated Grupo Financiero Banorte which is merging with Interactions.

To the extent that Banorte's economic analysis team maintained its growth forecast of 2.5 percent at the end of 2018 and 1.8 percent for 2019 .

"This last (data) mainly influenced by the significant decline in public spending, as well as (by) the conjugation of the term of investment in private sector projects with the effect of the Election uncertainty observed every first year of government since 1995 "he explained.

According to Banorte, e the new government, headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, will maintain the soundness of macroeconomic fundamentals of Mexico such as: a responsible fiscal policy, continue the process of consolidating public finances, without need to raise taxes or debt, and respect the autonomy of the Bank of Mexico.

In inflation analysts maintained their expectations of 4.3% at the end of this year and 3.5% by the end of 2019 .

Regarding the performance of the exchange rate this Sunday and Monday, Gabriel Casillas explained in the program Al Sonar la Campana with Víctor Piz that the markets had already discounted the victory of Morena, and sometimes the exchange rate has recovered a few cents.

However, when they began to know the results of the Chambers, they lost ground again because we did not expect this party to reach 50 plus one, which would allow it to fall back. approve reforms, although not constitutional.

"We could observe a post-election rally in the second half of 2018 similar to what was observed in previous electoral processes … and that the exchange rate closed at 18.60 this year."

In addition, they expect Banxico to maintain the unchanged reference rate at 7.75% over the next 18 months, said Gabriel Casillas, Chief Financial Group Economist.

"Similarly, we expect a similar performance of interest rates, with a country risk premium that will probably reflect a stable macroeconomic framework," he added.