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If the President of the United States wants lower prices at gas stations, he does not need to depend on OPEC. It has an emergency stock of 660 million barrels of oil
. The release of some of this crude in September or October could drive down gasoline prices before the November mid-term elections.
Trump could also use it as a tool to convince Iranian oil buyers to suspend their purchases in the run-up to November 4, when US sanctions against the Islamic Republic will be reinstated.
"For the Trump administration to negotiate with Iranian crude buyers, it is probably more strategic to offer a withdrawal from the SPR [Reserva Estratégica de Petróleo] as a countervailing force for the narrowness of the market" said Kevin Book, director of the ClearView Energy Partners consulting firm in Washington.
United States is ready to release oil. Congress ordered the sale of 11 million barrels by Oct. 1, and a government spending bill sent to Congress could add another 4 million barrels. But Trump has emergency powers to release up to 30 million more barrels.
"Forty-five million barrels coming into the market in a relatively short period of time would be a big thing," said Book.
The use of reserves in addition to other countries to offset the loss of Iranian barrels could constitute a legitimate use of stocks, but would provide only a short-term respite, said Robert McNally, former product adviser. based. President George W. Bush and Chairman Rapidan Energy Group.
"Washington can not stabilize the global oil market with the SPR," he warned. "If he decides to use the SPR to fight the fundamental forces, he can win short and temporary battles, but he will lose the war."
Depending on size and timing, a sale of oil may have no effect on the market or have a real, though fleeting, impact on prices.
"When the sale of the SPR takes place before a real narrowness – good examples are Katrina, the first Gulf War – the price response is quite dramatic, even if it is short-lived," said Book. .
The former head of the Energy Information Administration, Guy Caruso, is more skeptical. "There is not enough oil to make a big difference in the global market," he said.
Energy Secretary Rick Perry rejected the idea last week of releasing oil from the strategic oil reserve in response to Iran, but the decision will eventually be made by the President. Previously, Perry and Trump had opposite positions on the role of the reserves and Trump proposed to sell half of the reserves to reduce the deficit.
The Ministry of Energy has not responded to a request for comment.
It may be too early to speculate on what the administration will do, Caruso said. "A big part of that would be to see what the Saudis do and, secondly, how much of Iran's exports will actually be diminished by the sanctions."
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