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Tensions in in Germany by migrants become a government crisis almost three years after Angela Merkel's decision to receive hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers
Next, the issues at stake:
What are the reasons for the conflict?
The confrontation began before mid-June when Interior Minister Horst Seehofer who also chairs the Bavarian Conservative Party Christian Social Union (CSU), saw Chancellor Angela Merkel block his plan for hardening asylum policy . The Chancellor categorically rejects the main measure of her minister: the expulsion of German borders from any migrant registered in advance by another country of the European Union.
This conflict quickly became a crucial issue that threatened the coalition which was badly mistreated in March of this year and which brought together the hard law of the CSU, the Chancellor's Right Center (CDU) and the social democrats.
Why is this conflict aggravated?
The Minister does not want to surrender to his boss and even calls him by putting an ultimatum to the Chancellor: the imposition of their measures at the border by ministerial decree at the beginning of July, unless they are taken Very restrictive and equivalent measures to their approaches, at European level.
For his part, the Minister of Foreign Affairs continued to oppose any form of unilateral expulsion to the borders of his country before the fear of a "effect domino " across Europe that would threaten the free movement in force.
Merkel also considered to have negotiated a European political agreement last week and bilateral agreements the effect of which is "more than the equivalent" measures you want to Seehofer. Sunday, the minister rejected the results of these meetings with other countries of the European bloc and put the fate of the German government on hold
Are migrants the only reason for the conflict?
It's much deeper. The Bavarian Conservatives, and even some of Angela Merkel's own party leaders, seem to adjust their political accounts with the Chancellor once and for all. In fact, Seehofer and his party have stopped denouncing Merkel's decision to open the country's doors in 2015 to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers. Beyond the issue of migration, CSU has long considered that Merkel, during her 13 years in power, had moved the conservative wing too much to the center.
For its part, the German Left describes the fight within the Conservative Party as "a stroke of right". Several German media also see in this conflict a German version of "Trumpism" (by US President Donald Trump) because the CSU, which advocates a "German premiere" on migrants, emboldened with the proximity of the regional elections in Bavaria in October
In this region, opinion polls warn that UHC could lose its absolute majority following the advance of the far right thanks to its anti-immigrant rhetoric
Finally, issue of start-up evictions at the border is mainly symbolic. Migrant arrivals are in freefall, in Europe in general and in Germany in particular have tightened reception policies and strengthened the fight against illegal immigration .
What are the possible scenarios?
Seehofer proposed his resignation Sunday night but then suspended this decision to allow the holding of a final round of negotiations with Merkel on Monday afternoon
. Interior del detailed three scenarios: could join the ranks, or pass Angela Merkel's objections and impose expulsion on their own borders, which would lead to her resignation and a possible breakup of the governing coalition. The third possible option would be a waiver. He mentioned that in a term of "three days" will announce his decision.
For his part, the Chancellor can not give in to Seehofer, but it will probably be the Social Democrats who will crush the government
If the majority of the government collapses with the departure of the CSU, Merkel could try a ] minority government or attempt to build a majority with other partners, or choose to move to early elections.
Nor does it preclude an exit from the Chancellor's power.
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