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All season, the narrative around men’s college basketball has been that it’s Gonzaga and Baylor – and everyone. The Zags and Bears were clearly the top two teams in the country, the prohibitive favorites of the national champions, and no one else was even close. Instead of debating # 1, the discussion revolved around # 3 – as in, who is the best of the rest? It’s a place that has bounced from team to team for most of the past few months.
While Gonzaga and Baylor could still be a cut above the field because neither team has lost a game, Michigan makes a strong argument that they are much closer to the Gonzaga / Baylor level than to the “everything” level. the world”.
This is an argument reinforced by the fact that the teams ranked No.4, 5, 6, 7 and 9 have all suffered losses in the past five days. Of course, No.4 is Ohio state, which saw Michigan enter Columbus on Sunday, rack up 92 points and walk away with a declared victory.
The Wolverines had another one on Thursday.
They overcame a slow first half against Iowa to knock the No.9 Hawkeyes out of the gym in the second half, retiring for a dominant 79-57 victory. Michigan center Hunter Dickinson more than held his own against Luka Garza of Iowa, forcing the Wooden Award favorite to spend a 6-for-19 night on the field while scoring 14 points on the other end. Franz Wagner, the Wolverines’ top NBA draft prospect, had 21 points and was consistent all game, while Isaiah Livers had four 3 points and 16 points.
Michigan’s defense in the Big Ten game was his calling card, and it was no different on Thursday. At the start of the week, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, the fewest points Iowa had scored in a half all season was 31. The Hawkeyes fell short of that number in both halves against Michigan. . And it wasn’t just Garza who was struggling. Iowa shot 6-for-19 from 3 points, making just two shots from behind the arc in the second half.
Earlier in the season, Michigan began to be recognized as one of the best teams in the country after a 23-point victory over not-so-close Wisconsin. Four days later, the Wolverines lost to Minnesota by 18. They followed it up with a pair of Big Ten, but we haven’t seen them play for 23 days due to a state-imposed break. While there was evidence Michigan were the third best team in the country, it was hard to really buy the Wolverines because we didn’t know what they would look like after the break.
They answered this question impressively. They won at Wisconsin in their first game back, beat Rutgers and went on to claim victory over Ohio State on Sunday. Then came Thursday’s test against an Iowa team with the best offense in the country and improving defense. And the game was not in doubt over the last 16 minutes of play.
Gonzaga and Baylor will still make the NCAA tournament as two favorites unless one – or both – loses a game, but the gap between Michigan and everyone else is widening. This is a claim backed by metrics. The Wolverines are No.3 in KenPom, No.3 in Sagarin odds and No.3 in ESPN record-breaking metric strength. They are 7-1 against opponents in Quadrant 1 and 11-1 against opponents in Quadrant 1 and 2. KenPom’s adjusted margin of efficiency helped Gonzaga and Baylor to place 1 and 2 in the ‘either order since Baylor’s opener of the season, but Michigan’s victory on Thursday reduced Baylor’s advantage to just 0.48. (Gonzaga has gradually moved away from the pack in the West Coast Conference game.)
Michigan is an elite on both ends of the field. The Wolverines are one of the most effective offensive teams in the country, shooting better than 39% from the back of the arc but also able to throw the ball to Dickinson on the block and get a basket. They have five players who have made at least 20 3 points this season at a clip of 36.7% or better. Wagner and Livers are versatile scorers on the wing. Mike Smith, the Columbia transfer graduate who has gone from averaging 22.8 points on 19.3 shots last season to averaging 8.6 points on 6.4 shots this season, has become a playmaker veteran who distributes efficiently, takes care of the ball and makes an open 3. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown adds some pop to the bench.
Defensively, head coach Juwan Howard has several high profile individual defenders. Wagner has improved considerably at this end of the room; Dickinson has just stifled Garza and has shown he can be dominant on the glass; and Eli Brooks is one of the Big Ten’s best defenders. Wolverines are exceptional at challenging shots inside the arc and at keeping opponents out of the paint.
Howard is the favorite for National Coach of the Year. He lost two senior starters last season to Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske, replaced them with Smith and Dickinson, and this team bought at both ends of the pitch.
And after Thursday, he also has a team that split into the upper crust of the college basketball landscape.
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