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“Do we have a plan if she decides it’s not allowed?” said Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) “The answer is no.”
Democrats are trying to squeeze the minimum wage hike into the so-called budget reconciliation process, which allows them to dodge a GOP filibuster and push their Covid aid bill through with 50 Democratic votes. Otherwise, they’ll need 10 Republicans to back him up, an unlikely proposition given the yawning chasm between the two sides on the issue.
Although Republicans have released a bill raising the wage to $ 10 an hour and strengthening the use of the e-Verify immigration system among employers, Democrats have little interest in securing a deal for the moment.
“They don’t want a minimum wage,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). “The public wants this to be done and the public wants a lot of things to be done. [Republicans] are unwilling to do so.
Brown said Democrats had discussed among themselves how they might need to change the legislation to pass the Senate. But at least two Senate Democrats, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, oppose a wage hike to $ 15 as part of the coronavirus bill. And Manchin said he would like to see the minimum wage rise closer to $ 11.
Democrats have ruled out an attempt to overrule the parliamentarian’s decision, a move that would amount to clearing the obstruction by some other means. So if the parliamentarian hits the language of the minimum wage, some Democrats have discussed trying to tie it to a second stimulus package later this year, believing that the budgetary impacts of a wage change might work better in a project. employment law adopted in the context of reconciliation.
Another option is to get small businesses to increase their wages by using tax breaks, if that is successful with the parliamentarian.
“I’m not going to say exactly” how the party would handle a setback with the parliamentarian, said Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, the No. 4 Democrat in the Senate. “I really don’t want to negotiate this at the moment.”
But it’s hard to plan without the essential information they need. And as senators left Thursday afternoon to return home for the weekend, the chamber remained in a state of uncertainty over the fate of the minimum wage provision. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Argued that the hourly increase should be included in the coronavirus relief program because an increase in the minimum wage would increase the deficit.
Senate Republicans counter that this provision is foreign, will result in job losses and hurt small businesses. They expect the parliamentarian to hit him – which would both avoid a short-term intra-party democratic fight and complicate the prospects of adopting a long-term Democratic priority.
While the Democratic House and White House leaders have obeyed the obscure Senate rules, they aren’t exactly willing to change their own short-term priorities, even if the wobbly manners of the Upper House mess things up.
“The call can take us both ways,” Ways and Means House Speaker Richard Neal (D-Mass.) Said of the parliamentarian’s decision. But he promised the House would vote on a “no matter what” increase in the parliamentarian’s office.
“If for some reason the parliamentarian speaks out against it,” Neal said, “then you’ll probably get a vote in the House fairly quickly.”
Raising the current $ 7.25 federal minimum wage is a key campaign promise for Democrats, and the $ 15 is a top priority for progressives and unions. Protecting the Senate reconciliation process might be their only opportunity, without changing the legislative obstruction.
“We need to adopt a minimum wage of $ 15 an hour,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “If we can do it through reconciliation, so much the better. If we can’t, we have to tackle the filibuster problem and then move on to minimum wage. “
Even if the parliamentarian speaks out in favor of the wage hike, the coronavirus relief package could still be amended in the Senate when it arrives early next month. Republicans are eager to point out the divide between Democrats on the issue and may come up with an amendment to ease the minimum wage hike. The reconciliation process allows for long offers of amendments from senators on both sides.
Meanwhile, some Democrats are questioning whether Sinema, Manchin and other undecided Democrats would derail the entire Covid package on the sole issue of pay.
The fate of $ 15 an hour “will depend on whether Senator Manchin and Senator Sinema, who opposed it, somehow feel that the greater good of the bill is more. important than the specific provision of the minimum wage, ”Sen said. Bob Menendez (DN.J.)
A less attractive option available to Democrats is working with the GOP. Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is part of a group of Senate Republicans proposing a minimum wage of $ 10, said Thursday that she believes a bipartisan compromise may still be possible in the Senate.
“It is obvious that we need an increase in the minimum wage,” she said. “But I don’t really think it should be part of the Covid package. … A better way would be to introduce a bill and see if we can fix it.
The last time the minimum wage got a stand-alone vote in the Senate, it failed in 2014, with Democrats seeking to raise the hourly rate to $ 10.10. This experience has convinced many Democrats that their best course of action is to work to win over 50 of their members using a reconciliation bill, rather than engage in what many see as fruitless negotiations with the Republicans.
“There are a million angles,” said Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “Even though there are differences in quantity and speed, what are the exceptions, he’s such a unifier in our caucus. We will find a way to do it. I’m pretty confident about it.
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