Mitch McConnell is about to face the longest 18 days of his political life

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On Friday, the Democrat-controlled House will vote on a favored resolution to end President Donald Trump's invocation of the National Emergencies Act to secure the funding needed to build a wall on the southern border of the country. President Nancy Pelosi (California) wrote a letter urging all members of Congress to vote for the resolution and, considering the Democratic majority in the House, she seems safe to move on.

Which means that it will be sent to the Senate. Where he will be legally required to vote within 18 days. Which could be the longest 18 days of political life of the majority leader in the Senate.

"This could trigger a chain of events on Capitol Hill that would risk dividing the Republicans conference, undermining other elements of Trump's program, and possibly opening up the actions of the administration. This could also provide a moment of clarification that Republicans on the Hill have managed to manage – to avoid since Trump took office – to vote upward or downward on the question of whether or not he or she has been elected. it should build the wall on the actual scale that Trump wants. "

Well yes. And each sign indicates that this nightmare scenario for McConnell is happening – and is happening soon.

On Thursday, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said that if the House passes the privileged resolution, it will ensure that the Senate votes on it.

"This issue transcends partisan politics, and I urge all senators – Democrats and Republicans – to support this resolution to end the president's urgent declaration during a Senate vote" said Schumer. "A bill identical to the House resolution will soon be introduced in the Senate."

Which is a problem for McConnell because of his mathematics.

There are 47 Democrats in the Senate. It is likely that the vast majority – if not all – will vote for the resolution. (Potential "no" votes would include Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Doug Jones of Alabama.) Which means that even half a dozen Republican defections would force resolution in Trump's office. (Of course, he would veto it, but it would be a big embarrassment for Trump, whatever.)

The senator from Maine, Susan Collins, has already indicated that she would support the resolution – assuming nothing else attaches to it. "If it's a clean disapproval resolution, I'll support it," she told reporters at Capitol Hill on Wednesday. She is the first Republican senator to publicly support the resolution, but before Trump declared national urgency, many GOP Senators voiced their concerns over such a decision.
"And if anyone else thought climate change was a national emergency, what would they do and where would they go?" South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds (R) asked in an interview with CNN on Feb. 14. Sen. John Thune (SD), third leader of the GOP, said last month of the national emergency declaration: "Frankly, I'm not crazy Inevitably, I guess that will likely be challenged in court." The Senate majority whip, John Cornyn (Texas), said something similar, calling the emergency declaration "impractical solution to the problem".

Now, saying that you do not think Trump should declare a national emergency is not the same as breaking openly with the president on something he has placed at the top of his agenda in the campaign. And break with him without real end. Trump will veto – and there are not two-thirds of the Senate and / or House to overturn this veto.

After all, McConnell himself has repeatedly stated his opposition to Trump declaring a national emergency.

"I hope it's not going down that road," McConnell told The New York Times Magazine last month. On January 29, McConnell was even more direct: "I am for everything that works – which means to avoid a closure and to prevent the president from thinking that he should declare a national emergency."

The question for McConnell and his colleagues in the Republican Senate is whether voting for a symbolic vote to send a message that the legislature will not be intimidated by the executive is worthwhile to cross this Speaker. (The Constitution states that the legislature is solely responsible for allocating federal funds.)

I guess the answer to this question is "no". But McConnell will be on guard here until he gets this 50th "no" vote. * If * he gets this 50th "no" vote.

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