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Going to fourth in the NFL has never been so popular.
But Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel missed what seemed like a golden opportunity to do so late in the Titans game on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, which Tennessee then lost 20-13.
As the Titans followed the Ravens 17-13 early in the fourth quarter, Tennessee made a series of questionable decisions. Facing a second and a second on the Baltimore 40-yard line, the Titans attempted a deep shot on AJ Brown. This one missed the mark.
Then in third and second row, the titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was asked to throw again, but Jonnu Smith couldn’t hang on to the pass after a big hit. Another failure.
But the real scraper came from Vrabel in the fourth row. The Titans kicked off (and for just 25 yards) which was an absolute shock.
What makes it such a bad call?
Numbers strongly suggest going there, or almost any other situation in a game.
In fact, it could be one of the more conservative calls of the entire 2020 season – and possibly beyond that.
TEN decided to throw a punt at BAL du BAL 40 on 4-2 with 10:06 left in the 4th while losing 13-17.
With a surrender index of 138.87, this punt ranks in the 100th percentile of loose kicks for the 2020 season and the 99.92nd percentile of all kicks since 2009.
– Redemption index 90 (@ surrender_idx90) January 10, 2021
Oh my!
This is a MASSIVE error from Vrabel.
The boat ride on 4th and 2nd at the 40-yard line BALTIMORE costs just the #Titans 14% probability of pre-snap victory.#BALvsTEN
– EdjSports (@edjsports) January 10, 2021
On their next heat, the Titans went out alone 30 with the stopwatch approaching the two-minute warning. But that practice ended with a pick by Tannehill and the Titans lost the game.
So why did Vrabel do it?
“I just decided to throw. I thought we were playing well defensively … playing the game of position on the pitch.” – Vrabel when asked to explain to us his thought process on the 4th quarter, 4th punt. #Titans
– Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) January 10, 2021
It would be a more palatable answer if the Ravens hadn’t taken possession of the score (not counting the end of the half-time on their knees) on four of their previous five discs and Lamar Jackson wasn’t cutting the Titans with his legs.
Also, why not Henry over there? Yes, the Ravens limited Henry to a paltry 40 yards on 18 carries in the game, and that had to factor in Vrabel’s thought.
But that begs the question: why have a rebate of $ 12.5 million per year if you’re not going to use it in situations like this?
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