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Thanks to a huge May, the Cubs held the top spot for much of June. An 11-game losing streak that coincided with a big Brewers run effectively ended the season, and now the Cubs find themselves with a lot of big decisions with the trade deadline set later in the week on Friday the 30th. July.
The Cubs are now clearly sellers and the organization could use a bit of a reboot. So it looks like some fan favorites will be wearing different uniforms very soon, as heartbreaking as that may be for many in Wrigleyville.
So let’s do a quick breakdown of potentially tradable players.
Free agents after this season: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Zach Davies, Matt Duffy, Dan Winkler, Ryan Tepera, Adam Morgan, Robinson Chirinos
Options for 2022: Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, Jake Marisnick
Controlled only until 2022: Willson Contreras
It’s a lot. No, I don’t think all listed players will be traded. It would be quite a flurry of movement. I think every player listed has been or at least will be discussed in one way or another. With that in mind, let’s discuss the landing spots of the biggest names.
Kimbrel, as good as he’s ever been, is the best reliever available and has a $ 16 million club option for next season, making him an even more attractive play. Expect Cubs president Jed Hoyer to wait until the final hours on deadline day and watch a bidding war unfold. It would probably take less time to list suitors who would not be interested in Kimbrel’s services. Basically, every competitor capable of making money will likely be involved: Red Sox, Blue Jays (if they’re still close enough to a wildcard slot to buy), Astros, Mets, Braves, Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers seem most likely to be connected.
I have a feeling he left before the deadline. He’s got the MVP inside out (he’s already won it) and will be a huge boost to any team. He’s one of baseball’s best pure basemen and can play good defense at third base and both corners of the outfield. He’s even good enough to get by in the middle of the pitch. He can also play first, but that’s a waste of his talent.
I feel like a package with Kimbrel at the Mets is the best bet, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be the landing point. The Phillies would be a good place, especially if they wanted to trust him down center (and remember, Bryce Harper is his friend!). The Braves are working. The Giants could use it in third place until Evan Longoria is back, then move Bryant.
He could stay put. I’m not even sure what value it has in the market. He’s a good defender, but it’s the first goal. He’s a good hitter, but not a good one – especially as a first baseman – now, cutting .241 / .341 / .420 right now. You know where there’s a good fit, though? The team that originally wrote Rizzo: The Boston Red Sox. They had a terrible production from first base all year round and he would love to hit Fenway Park for a few months. I also wonder about the Yankees.
Of all those listed here, Báez seems to be the most likely to stick around. Call it an instinct, of course, but I don’t think Báez is as valuable with any other team. He’s beloved in Chicago – at least on the north side – and thrives on the energy of the crowd in home games. He suffered in 2020 without fans. What if he is traded, falls into one of his Bad Javy collapses and gets booed? I can’t imagine this would end well. Likewise, his holes have magnified to the point that I think he is now underrated.
Teams that should be interested even if they aren’t: White Sox (to play second), Mets (he can move when Francisco Lindor returns), Giants (move to second when Brandon Crawford returns), Phillies (he can play third) and more. The Reds should be interested if they buy, but I can’t see it.
I’m guessing the Cubs are heading into the offseason trying to extend Contreras, but there’s also a possibility that they’re dealing with him right now with his higher value than most of this roster due to the extra controlling year. The Blue Jays make a lot of sense on that front. Their capture situation is a mess and the extra year of control is fitting as they will surely go all-in for the playoffs next year. What deadly programming it would be to add Contreras’ bat. Could the Mariners take a look? The Astros and the Braves (his brother’s organization) would also make sense.
No one will mistake Davies for a front row starter, but he can be invaluable as a deep back. He has a 3.12 ERA in his last 16 starts. Teams that might be interested in something like a number five starter: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Athletics, Mariners, Braves, Phillies, Brewers (a reunion?) And maybe even the Dodgers, although I guess they ‘they will shoot higher.
Winkler, Tepera, Chafin
Almost all buyers love the depth of the lifters. Chafin being a southpaw could separate him from the pitch a bit, but Tepera is having a great year and should land something good in return. This may be the area that teams looking to spend less money are diving into, like the Rays and Athletics. It’s possible that Winkler was bad enough in July to get nothing back, but the other two are still playing.
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