MLB’s 10 biggest surprises so far, including White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodón and Orioles star Cedric Mullins

Major League Baseball’s regular season is almost 70 percent over. Each team has completed at least 110 of their scheduled contests Tuesday night, providing us with a good look at what their years will look like, although there are finer details to be filled in. It’s that time of year, then, when we feel more comfortable writing about larger concepts.

This analytical freedom includes, as you might have understood from the title, highlighting 10 players who are having surprisingly good seasons. These exercises are always more art than science, but we’ve put together this list using a few basic rules of thumb. First, a player had to have at least 45 innings or 200 home plate appearances to be counted; number two, the player must have greatly exceeded expectations and / or past performance.

To use an example, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds came in on Wednesday hitting .305 / .388 / .526 (146 OPS +). He’s having a phenomenal season, there’s no doubt about it; He’s not here, however, as just two seasons ago he hit 0.314 / 0.377 / 0.503 (129 OPS +). Reynolds is having a better season now than then, but we don’t think his success counts as a “surprise.”

With that out of the way, let’s go. (Please note that players are listed in alphabetical order.)

When the Tigers selected No.3 Akil Baddoo in last winter’s Rule 5 Draft, we praised his power-speed combination and warned that he could be overexposed against big league pitchers this season thanks to reps. lost due to injury and the pandemic. He made those worries crazy by hitting 0.267 / 0.333 / 0.467 with 10 homers, 24 problems (i.e. triples plus doubles) and 14 goals stolen (out of 18 tries) in his first 333 appearances at home plate. . Baddoo’s success would be easy to laugh at because of its unimpressive average exit speed of 85.3mph (it ranks in the 2nd percentile), but part of the charm of its game is its ability to hit the helicopters, rollers, white balls and other mischief. Sure enough, his 0.308 average on batted balls with an exit speed of no more than 70 mph is the 11th highest of the majors. Considering the circumstances, it would be a clear victory for Al Avila and the Tigers even if his production were significantly worse.

The Athletics acquired southpaw Cole Irvin in January for money considerations when the Philadelphia Phillies had to create a spot for Matt Moore. Irvin has not only outperformed Moore since, but he has become a big part of the A’s rotation posting a 3.45 ERA (119 ERA +) and a 3.92 strike-at-bat on 130 frames. He doesn’t throw hard or missed bats, and he doesn’t stand out in any of the other fashionable ways (spin rate, extension), but he hammers the area and he locates well and sometimes it’s still enough to do work .

Cedric Mullins was in the trade this spring as the Orioles weren’t sure if he was going to smash their opening day list. He did, and now the Orioles must be happy they didn’t find a suitor. Mullins hit 0.320 / 0.385 / 0.551 (155 OPS +) with 20 homers and 21 interceptions (out of 28 tries) in his first 109 games. He hits less often and walks more often, of course, but the most interesting part of his season is about his pitch angle. Mullins’ 15.1-degree mark is almost identical to the 15.6 he posted last season, but a closer look reveals that he sent fewer balls hit in the extremes, either by blowing it up, or by hitting it on the ground. As a result, a higher share of his bullets hit has the potential to do damage – and to do damage that they have. It’s fair to write that if Mullins is traded at any point this winter, it will be for much more than he would have earned in the spring.

Tyler O’Neill entered the spring with a .229 / .291 / .422 career slash line in 450 home plate appearances. The Cardinals nevertheless seemed to still believe in his ability to become something greater, and he has rewarded their patience to this day. O’Neill has reached 0.280 / 0.346 / 0.518 (138 OPS +) with 18 home runs in his first 89 games this season. His 93.3 mph average exit speed is the ninth-highest of the majors, and he hit the ball in the 10-30 degree sweet spot, third among hitters with at least 300 home plate appearances. It’s a hell of a combination, and it explains why O’Neill has been St. Louis’ best hitter this season.

Future Guardians acquired Cal Quantrill as part of Mike Clevinger’s trade last summer. They then left him in the bullpen and they looked set to do the same this season until injuries cleared their rotation. With few other cards to play, Cleveland installed Quantrill as a starter in mid-June, and the move worked wonderfully. In 11 outings, he’s racked up a 3.10 ERA and 0.230 Vs average while scoring just over five innings per pop. It’s unclear if Cleveland intends to leave Quantrill in the rotation until next spring, but if he continues to play the way he has, then that may not be an issue for consideration. .

According to league sources, Carlos Rodón was unwilling to accept offers over the winter that forced him out of the bullpen. What seemed like an error in judgment at the time – he hadn’t been an effective starter in the big leagues since 2018 – now looks like the decision of someone who knew better days were to come. Before making his way to the injured list on Wednesday, Rodón had a 2.38 ERA (178+ ERA) and a strike-to-strike ratio of 5.33 in 109 innings. His speed is up, from 92.8 mph to 95.8 mph, and his signature slider remains a missing weapon, dodging wood on more than 40% of swings taken against him. He has one of seven hits this season; in April when he threw one against Cleveland. Add an improved feel to the strike zone, and Rodón now looks like the pitcher he was meant to be when he was drafted third overall in 2014.

When the Marlins signed Zach Thompson as a minor league free agent during the offseason, they couldn’t have imagined him being part of their big-league rotation – not after he stagnated with the White Sox as a reliever. Still, Thompson was thrown into the Miami rotation in June and has since held his own in 10 outings, racking up a 3.09 ERA (132 ERA +) and a strike-to-walk ratio of 2.25. He doesn’t throw hard, but his cutter, curveball, and shift have helped him stay afloat. Another key to his success has been careful management: the Marlins have seen him face 19 or fewer batters in six of his 20 starts. It remains to be seen whether Thompson, who looks a bit like Matt Harvey from the front, will be able to maintain a pivot point forward. At a minimum, he could have a future in a multi-innings relief role.

Farhan Zaidi is gaining a reputation for successful unbalanced transactions. It was Zaidi who acquired Mike Yastrzemski for Tyler Herb a few springs ago, and it was Zaidi who traded Shaun Anderson to the Minnesota Twins for LaMonte Wade Jr. in February. Anderson has since hit the waiver three times as the only thing Wade hits is big-league pitching – up to a cool slash line of .249 / .332 .519 (126 OPS +) with 13 home runs. . Since he perfected his swing, he hits the ball harder; he pulls it more frequently; and it throws it more frequently at a more optimal angle. Consider Wade’s defensive versatility (he’s split the season between opening goal and outfield corner points) and he’s been a good pickup.

Garrett Whitlock, the No.4 pick in last winter’s Rule 5 draft, is the only reliever to make the cut – and he’s not the one-inning type. On the contrary, he recorded at least six outs in 16 of his 33 appearances. To reverse that statistic, Whitlock has scored three strikeouts or less in just nine of those 33 games. Why is it so effective? Partly because Whitlock throws a mid-90s pellet after a mid-90s pellet; partly because it creates more than seven feet of separation between the pitch rubber and its drop point; and in part because his change and slider kept opponents at batting average below 200 and generated puff rates above 30 percent. Getting a pitcher like this in draft rule 5 is a hit; effectively stealing the Yankees in the process makes it that much smoother.

More than nine years have passed since Patrick Wisdom was selected in the first round by the Cardinals. He’s just starting to improve his draft window, hitting .267 / .335 / .564 (140 OPS +) with 17 home runs in 67 games. His ability to impact the ball has been impressive, as he ranks seventh among hitters with over 100 home plate appearances in batting percentage measured at 95 mph or more, just behind Fernando Tatis Jr. and just ahead of Shohei Ohtani. He breathes at an extreme frequency, but there’s a chance he’s the Cubs version of JD Davis. Chicago’s front office believes in wisdom so much that they traded Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the deadline to ensure he gets a place on the lineup every day. (We laugh, we laugh; they did it because the Cubs owner group is a nihilistic group.)