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Sixty-nine counties now have an average 7-day positive rate of less than 10% on diagnostic testing for coronaviruses.
The good news: This is the highest number since November 2.
The bad news: Counties should ideally be at 5% positivity or less, and there are still 62 counties above that benchmark.
Still, the numbers are heading in the right direction and it looks like Michigan has avoided a post-vacation surge at this point.
Did Michigan Avoid the Winter Vacation Coronavirus Outbreak?
Statewide, Michigan’s seven-day positivity rate is 6.9%. That’s the state’s seven-day average since October. The seven-day statewide average of new cases is now 2,236, down 29% from 3,136 a week ago today.
Below is a more in-depth look at the county-level data, based on parameters used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to assess coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by MDHHS has six levels – “low” plus AE levels.
First, a look at the seven-day average positivity rates by county, grouped by state metric.
- Level E (more than 20%): none.
- Level D (15-20%): Hillsdale.
- Level C (10-15%): 13 counties, highest to lowest – Branch, Wexford, Missaukee, Lenawee, Gogebic, Oceana, Cass, St. Joseph, St. Clair, Newaygo, Tuscola, Crawford and Livingston.
- Level B (7-10%): 30 counties, highest to lowest – Houghton, Clare, Manistee, Shiawassee, Benzie, Alpena, Van Buren, Saginaw, Monroe, Ottawa, Calhoun, Eaton, Lapeer, Mason, Muskegon, Ingham, Macomb, Oscoda, Presque Isle, Kent, Berrien, Wayne, Grand Traverse, Allegan, Huron, Kalamazoo, Iosco, Bay and Jackson.
- Level A (3-7%): 33 counties – Alcona, Arenac, Osceola, Leelanau, Ionia, Gladwin, Oakland, Barry, Sanilac, Genesee, Clinton, Midland, Kalkaska, Ontonagon, Cheboygan, Montcalm, Lake, Washtenaw, Roscommon, Antrim, Ogemaw, Isabella, Emmet, Otsego, Keweenaw, Gratiot, Montmorency, Charlevoix, Mecosta, Iron, Alger, Menominee, Dickinson and Chippewa.
- Low (less than 3%): Six counties – Delta, Luce, Marquette, Mackinac, Baraga and Schoolcraft.
The table below allows you to search any county by name to see the seven-day average positivity rate from January 7 to 13. The graph has been modified to compare the average for the last seven days to the average for the previous week.
The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
Daily new cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.
In this metric – which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million population – 61 counties are at level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The threshold for level E is 150 cases per day per million inhabitants.
The levels of the other 22 counties:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Ontonagon, Marquette, Cheboygan, Osceola, Gratiot, Emmet, Menominee, Delta, Montmorency, Oscoda, Roscommon, Crawford, Ogemaw, Presque Isle, Kalkaska, Chippewa, Dickinson and Schoolcraft.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Baraga.
- Level B (20 to 39 cases per million): Mackinac and Luce.
- Low (less than 7 cases per million): Missaukee.
Here’s an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the number per capita that is adjusting to the population. Arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased from the previous seven days.
Current scores are based on new cases reported from January 8 to 14. The map below is shaded based on the six levels of state. Arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased from January 1-7.
Readers can hover their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: you can drag the map with your cursor to see all of the TOP)
Overall MDHHS score by region
MDHHS assigned an overall score to each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered, and emergency room visits for symptoms of COVID-19.
As of November 4, Michigan’s eight MI Start regions are at the highest level the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows these eight regions and their current scores. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
(The state’s MI Start Districts: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City ; Region 7, Jackson, and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Below are online databases that allow readers to search county-level data for each of the past 30 days.
Cases daily it was reported to the State
The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day over the past 30 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first became ill several days previously.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
(In a few cases, a county reported a negative (decline) number of new daily cases, following a retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In these cases, we subtracted the cases of the previous date and put 0 in the reported date field.)
The following table below shows new cases over the past 30 days based on symptom onset. In this graph, the numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the delay between illness and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps break down the state into 10-kilometer hexagons to provide a more localized overview of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to go to the research project website.
The first map examines confirmed and probable cases of coronavirus over the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the top right of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Latest daily report
On Saturday, January 16, the state reported 1,932 new cases of coronavirus and 103 new deaths.
The map below shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test finder, here, email [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
Learn more about MLive:
What worked in 2020 and what needs to work in 2021 for 12 Michigan schools
2020 was the deadliest year on record for Michigan and COVID-19 was the # 3 killer
For Michiganders newly eligible for the vaccine, excitement is high but details are scarce
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