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More than 4 million people, including a significant portion of black and Latin American Americans, could be excluded from the 2020 census, according to a new study from the nonpartisan Urban Institute released Tuesday.
The Washington-based think tank said in its report that "unprecedented threats" for the 2020 census, such as underfunding, hiring problems, inadequate testing and possible addition of a question on citizenship, could lead to undercoverage that would have disproportionate consequences for minorities.
Conducted every 10 years, the census is required by the Constitution. The results have a disproportionate influence on the country's economy and political power. It determines the number of seats in the House of Representatives of each state and affects the dispersion of billions of federal dollars that go to schools, hospitals, roads and several other vital areas.
For this report, the Institute has reviewed previous census data and has incorporated the current funding and testing challenges that the Census Bureau faces in developing its projections. The report's authors noted that it was difficult to accurately project census counts, which is why they created "risk" scenarios, such as low and high. Low risk assumes that the 2020 census will be on a par with the 2010 census. High risk predicts that the census would be below expectations, which government observers have predicted.
According to the findings of the Urban Institute, black and Hispanic households may be underestimated by almost 4% nationally in a "high risk" scenario. White households, however, would be 0.03% higher nationally under the same scenario.
Overcoverage occurs when there are counting errors, such as overestimation of household size or the use of administrative records from other federal agencies to enumerate hard-to-reach populations, the report states. . The experts also noted that while most decennial counts had accuracy problems, they were statistically insignificant. In comparison, the 2010 census underestimated 2.1% of the black population and 1.5% of the Latin American population, according to the Census Bureau.
Robert Santos, vice president and chief methodologist at the Urban Institute, said in a statement that this raises concerns that "one group will benefit more than it should at the expense of others".
"It all comes down to the basic concept of equity," he said.
At the state level, the report warned that California and Texas – the country's two largest states with large numbers of immigrants – could face the greatest risk of undercounting, with up to 39 per cent of the population in the country. at 2% of their unrecorded population.
The report also indicated that in the 10 most populous states of the country – California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas – black, Latino, Asian and American households, as well as that Pacific Island inhabitants undercount in low and high risk scenarios. White households in these states would be oversized in almost all cases except in the high-risk scenarios in Texas and California.
The 2020 census was the subject of close scrutiny after the administration of President Donald Trump announced that it would add the issue of citizenship, which critics say would be an attempt falsification of the census to punish the blue states, which have a large population of non-citizens, and to stir up fear among immigrants.
"Every American should be counted, regardless of race, ethnicity, age, income or place of residence," said Diana Elliott, Research Associate at the Urban Institute, in a statement. "The census is a key element of our government and society at the national, regional and local levels. Errors of this magnitude will have real consequences for the next decade, including how we fund programs for children and invest in our infrastructure. "
The Trump administration claimed that the addition of the issue was aimed at improving the enforcement of the law on the right to vote. The Supreme Court is currently considering whether the Commerce Department acted properly by ordering the Census Bureau to include the issue.
However, the court records released last week by the American Civil Liberties Union as part of its lawsuit to prevent the addition of the issue revealed that the idea had been launched by Thomas Hofeller, a Republican division of constituencies, which had written in letters and memos benefit to "Republicans and non-Hispanic Whites".
NBC News also said earlier that the Trump administration's plan to add the citizenship issue was just one of the many critical issues of the Census Bureau. Last year, the Government Accountability Office said that a number of alarm signals could affect the accuracy of the census, including budget difficulties, potential weaknesses in cybersecurity , staff shortages, discount tests and a bankrupt printing company.
The Census Bureau previously stated that it was confident that it would complete an accurate census of 2020.
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