Mortgage rates rise to new lows in the long term after the Fed



Mortgage rates it's broken a week long of silence today as a result of the announcement of a Federal Reserve policy. Even before the announcement made by the Fed today, we knew that we would probably see a change in rates. We did not know in which direction or at what pace. In this case, we were treated in the best possible scenario for both accounts (that is, rates fell rapidly).

As we discussed yesterday, the Fed's balance sheet has captured the attention of the financial markets. This is the Fed's loan portfolio of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds (both forms of loans authorizing the Fed to collect interest payments and principal payments). ). By the time these payments entered, the Fed had already been give the money back new loans (purchase of new bonds to replace old ones). They began to reduce these reinvestments in 2018. This is what is called the "balance sheet runoff" because it makes the balance sheet smaller.

We can say that the balance sheet had economic benefits and that at the beginning of 2019, the Fed suddenly spoke of end the policy in 2019. We knew we would have more information about this in the announcement today, but we did not know exactly what it would look like. As it stands, the Fed halves runoff from May 2019 and completes it by September 2019. This change is about as large as expected. This means that the Fed will buy more bonds faster. And the purchase of bonds leads to lower rates, all other things being equal.

Do not forget that the rates were already for something in this sense. Otherwise we would see an even bigger one move. Nevertheless, today's news has been enough to bring rates down to the lowest levels of the previous 14 months. In terms of context, the average lender proposes rates about eight percent lower than those of March 7.


Point of view of the initiator of the loan

The announcement made today by the Fed has marked a significant change in its policy. This equates to an additional demand for bonds, which will keep rates firmly under control. Both MBS and Treasuries have reached their best levels in a year or more, with the prospect of additional future gains. The trend is our friend, it's time to ride the floating boat while it is! –Ted Rood, lead creator

Most prevalent rates of the day

  • 30 YEARS FIXED – 4.375%
  • FHA / VA – 4.0-4.125%
  • 15 YEARS FIXED – 4.0 – 4.125%
  • ARM 5 YEARS – 4.25 – 4.625% depending on the lender


Locking / floating considerations in progress

  • The headwinds that had been dragging rates for almost two years began to soften towards the end of 2018. A rapid decline in the stock market certainly helped attract investors to bonds (which helps rates). Low of 8 months from here the end of the year
  • It's a bit of a crossroads. The rate hike could explode again. We can look back in October / November and see a long-term ceiling, or in early December and see a temporary correction before being more painful.
  • Whatever the case may be, the end of 2018 was a sign that rates are ready to seize the opportunities presented to them. From there, it will be up to economic data, tax policies and the stock market to decide on the next opportunities. The more difficult the prospects, the better the interest rates.
  • The rates discussed refer to the most frequently quoted 30-year conventional fixed rate and the most compliant for senior borrowers among low-cost average lenders. Rates are generally based on a low or zero origin or reduction, unless indicated otherwise. The rates on this page are "effective rates" that reflect daily changes in upfront costs.

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