Murder of Iranian nuclear scientist puts region and world leaders on the brink of potential retaliation from Iran



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Less than three days after Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in a military-style daytime ambush in Tehran, he was laid to rest in the courtyard of the country’s Imamzadeh Saleh mosque.

Despite his death, the debate over Iran’s nuclear program is far from over.

Officials in the Islamic Republic quickly blamed the murder – believed to have been caused by “electronic devices” – on Israel, with President Hassan Rouhani proclaiming that “this brutal assassination shows our enemies are going through anxious weeks, weeks that they feel. their era of pressure is coming to an end and world conditions are changing. “

Rouhani vowed that Tehran would retaliate “at the right time”.

In this photo released by the official Iranian Ministry of Defense website, soldiers stand near the flag-draped coffin of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a scientist who was killed on Friday, during a funeral ceremony in Tehran, Iran, on Friday. Monday, November 30.  2020. (Iranian Ministry of Defense via AP)

In this photo released by the official Iranian Ministry of Defense website, soldiers stand near the flag-draped coffin of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a scientist who was killed on Friday, during a funeral ceremony in Tehran, Iran, on Friday. Monday, November 30. 2020. (Iranian Ministry of Defense via AP)

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When, how, and if such retaliation could occur, world leaders – and critical actors in the region – are at their wit’s end.

“The math is that the Iranians are unlikely to respond now because they want to preserve the option for future talks due to the country’s economic problems,” Jason Brodsky, chief policy officer of the country, told Fox. United Against a Nuclear Iran (UNAI). News. “Nonetheless, the assassination could have an impact on the political debate in Iran in the short term, further weakening Rouhani’s already eroded domestic political position.”

Israel’s foreign ministry urged its diplomatic delegations around the world to exercise “the highest level of preparedness and awareness of any irregular activity” around Jewish community centers and missions.

The Pentagon admitted to moving an aircraft carrier to the area before the attack, but said the decision was unrelated. It is not known whether the US government received prior warning of the attack on Fakhrizadeh.

Other Iranian lawmakers have proposed to expel the country’s UN nuclear inspectors in reaction to the scientist’s death.

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Israel declined to comment on the incident and claim any responsibility, but as several security analysts and the history books point out, the attack follows a pattern of similar attacks by Mossad on high-ranking military operatives. Iranian nuclear program.

According to a well-placed White House source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, there is a deep sense of uncertainty emanating from Israel – and Iran’s other formidable enemy, Saudi Arabia. – on the incoming administration of Biden and its strong potential. will work to reinstate the controversial Iranian nuclear deal from the Obama era in 2015.

The Trump administration is also believed to be deeply concerned about the dismantling of the president’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

In this photo released by the official website of the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh attends a meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran on January 23, 2019 (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran via AP)

In this photo released by the official website of the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh attends a meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran on January 23, 2019 (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran via AP)

“Israel is opposed to the 2015 Iran nuclear framework agreement, abandoned by Trump, and its restoration under the new Biden administration. As a result, it was a preemptive strike at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and its chief architect, “said John Wood, defense and nuclear analyst. “There is no doubt that the attack will slow down Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but it will not end it.”

Although denied by Riyadh, several reports indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had historic talks in Saudi Arabia with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – in the futuristic city of Neom on the Red Sea last Sunday.

“Going forward, the Iran issue is likely to be something that will be handled very well by intelligence agencies. It is about going back to Moscow’s old set of rules after 20 years of focusing on the counter. -terrorism, ”the insider explained. “There is a return to the Cold War mentality.”

Under these rules, you hit one of our own and we will hit one of yours in return, the source explained, pointing out that this is probably not a case where missiles will be launched, but that Iran will “verify. probably his list “for a suitable target in Israel.

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Nonetheless, Tehran will have to weigh its competing interests – how difficult it is to retaliate, and how much it could hurt hopes of reestablishing ties with a new US leadership as its economy crumbles under the weight of sanctions.

Likewise, Biden’s team might find it more difficult than expected to mend the strands of diplomacy with Tehran.

“(This) may lead to a more honest and realistic assessment of the size and nature of Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” Wood added, “as well as serve as a basis for meaningful negotiation with Iran. on his abandonment. “

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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