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My favorite bet for Alabama-Georgia



If every consideration for the return match Oklahoma-Texas, but Alabama-Georgia in the league match SEC is the most convincing title conference match, and it's not close.

Starting Wednesday night, it's also the hottest university football match this week, according to data from The Action Network.

I'm on the record suggesting that Georgia +13 (now +13.5) is the right game against the spread. I think Alabama will win 10 points or less.

MyBookie has published a collection of props betting on Alabama-Georgia, which is great for casual bettors and adds to the fun of the game. In addition, for the very first time, it's possible to bet on the winner of the contest. half time Dr. Pepper.

I invested more time than necessary to admit that the bets on the props were disabled, and here are some that I would be willing to bet.

FIRST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME

Damien Harris (+500), Andre Swift (+505), Jerry Jeudy (+550), Josh Jacobs (+700), Elijah Holyfield (+700), Riley Ridley (+800), Henry Ruggs III ( +800)), Hardman Mole (+900), Irv Smith Jr. (+900), Jeremiah Holloman (+950), Tua Tagovailoa (+1200), Field (+500)

These bets usually look like throwing a blindfolded dart. You will hardly ever get any value.

In an attempt to remedy this situation, I looked at the touchdown leaders of each team and then recorded the first touchdown by both teams in the combined 24 games of the regular season.

Jerry Jeudy (four times) was the only player on both teams to score the first touchdown of his team more than twice. The odds of Jeudy equate to an implied odds of 15.4%, and he scored 16.7% of the initial 24 touchdowns represented by both teams. So, it can have a marginal value. But many of his touchdowns were huge explosive games, which Georgia limits well.

"Field" cashes if none of the players in the above list score the first touchdown of the game. The implied probabilities are 16.7%. Well, of the first 24 touchdowns that Alabama and Georgia scored in the regular season, nine of them came from players not on the list, including five different players from Georgia. That's 37.5% of the total, and that's a value.

The choice: Field

REPRESENTATION OF SEC TO CANDIDATE AT FOOTBALL COLLEGE

Alabama only (-600), Georgia only (+600), Alabama and Georgia (+400)

I will not give as much analysis here. I think Alabama wins the game. If this happens and the Ohio State or Oklahoma also wins, I do not expect the College Football Playoff Committee to authorize two SEC teams to surrender. in the field.

Georgia's power is greater than that of both teams. Therefore, if the committee really tries to select the "top four teams", UGA deserves special attention, even assuming a defeat against Alabama. But politically, I do not see it happen.

The choice: Alabama only

INTERCEPTION OF TUA TAGOVAILOA

Yes (+165), No (-240)

MyBookie lists seven different accessories involving Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts.

This one is my favorite.

Tagovailoa has made four interceptions in 340 career passes, one in 85. He has averaged 22.4 pass-per-game attempts this season. Although he only launched two interceptions in 12 games, he was sometimes lucky. So I will use his career rate.

This remains an interception every four games or so, a probability of 25%. Certainly, he will probably try more than 22 assists against Georgia, unless Alabama takes a big lead early in the game. Suppose, then, 30 passes. It's still a game every 2.8 games, for a 35.7% chance in a single game.

I do not think we need an opponent fit. Georgia's defensive pass statistics are among the best in the country. But the Bulldogs have only six interceptions, tied for the 109th national rank. Alabama is almost a favorite of two touchdowns, so chances are against Tagovailoa need to force something late.

The implied odds that he starts an intercept at +165 are 37.7%, while our handicap places the odds at 35.7%. It's a marginal value. But there is at least a chance for Alabama to get a three-point lead in this match and limit Tagovailoa's risky shots.

The choice: No

TOUCHDOWN NOT OFFENSIVE

Yes (+125), No (-165)

Georgia and Alabama combined 12 non-offensive strikes in the regular season. It's an average of one per game.

But before hitting "Yes", consider the teams allowed their opponents to score non-offensive touchdowns twice in 24 games.

Even taking into account an increased likelihood based on strong competition, do not expect one or the other of these teams to make a mistake serious enough to allow a non-offensive touchdown.

But let's say it's three times more likely to happen than during the regular season (or six times divided by 24). That's 25 percent.

The implied probabilities of "No" are 62.3%, but even being quite generous about the probability of "Yes", we have a 75% chance of "No".

The choice: No

DR. WEEKLY PEPPER COMPETITION

Let's be honest. If you're a SEC football fan, you've already bet on Dr. Pepper's halftime contest. You may not have bet money, but you have certainly chosen a winner before the contest begins and clashed with your friends and family.

Now, MyBookie allows you to bet real dollars on it, if you wish.

Four competitors compete for half-time tuition in Atlanta. MyBookie gave them an equal chance of winning, with a $ 100 bet making $ 225 for anyone who can guess.

But why guess when Dr. Pepper unveiled the videos of the four competitors?

Gabriel J .: As a trade animator, I immediately excluded him. It's a solid drawer, but I think it's going to try to be too perfect with its throws, which will limit its volume of attempts. I can also see him getting discouraged if he starts to "color out lines" by missing out.

Lamontenay J .: I was ready to support her with my money. She even seemed pretty athletic. But then I watched her video. She awkwardly talked about going up and down a few steps and several times, it seemed to me that she had almost lost balance. I can not support someone with questionable coordination.

Natania Q .: She seems to be a great person. Due to personal circumstances that she describes in her video, she wants to become a nurse practitioner in psychiatry to help people with depression. I think she will also care about every attempt and every football, limiting the volume of her attempts.

Alina S .: The picture that accompanies him shows his hike in the mountains. She is adventurous and will probably not be too nervous during the competition. She played a ukulele for her video, displaying irrational confidence and good dexterity between her fingers. At the end of her song, she comes out of the frame, showing a tremendous reaction time, grabs a Dr. Pepper, throws the cap and takes a sip at the speed of light.

The choice: Alina S.

BEST OF THE REST

MyBookie has released 23 different props for this game. This is not the territory of the Super Bowl, but it gives bettors options.

Here are some of the other props on this game that caught my attention.

  • Which backup QB will play more clichés, Jalen Hurts or Justin Fields?
  • Will Alabama be ahead of 21 points or more in the match?
  • Over / under 275.5 passing yards for Tua Tagovailoa
  • Which player will rush for more yards, Elijah Holyfield or Damien Harris?

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper. He is the founder of Sports locksmith and also works full time for MyBookie in Costa Rica.


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