N.Y. Republicans rush to challenge indicted incumbent Collins in deep red district

ALBANY – A possible bitter conflict is brewing among Republicans in New York's reddest congressional district, where incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Collins' indictment on insider trading charges and pending trial on corruption charges has the party worried about what ought to be a shoo-in victory next year.

With his case awaiting trial, a cohort of Republicans in the United States of America. The future of the future is incumbent in New York's 27th district, and more may be on the way.

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The Western New York must be a slam dunk for any Republican. President Donald Trump is in the lead by 25 points in 2016, and Collins won the election with 67 percent of the vote. But Collins was indicted just a few months before Election Day 2018, and he wound up beating a relative unknown, Democrat Nate McMurray, for the safe Republican seat by just over 1,000 votes. He has not declared that he will run for reelection.

That result and the continued shadow cast over Collins' integrity has convinced some local Republicans they need to look elsewhere if they wish to retain the seat. Collins, meanwhile, has not signaled he's ready to go. A House Ethics Committee inquiry into Collins' actions is open to the conclusion of his federal district short trial, slated for February 2020 in New York City.

"The only way this district is lost if Chris Collins is on the ballot," said state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo), the first to declare his bid against Collins in May.

Jacobs, a New York secretary of state for the New York State's wealthiest family (his uncle is worth more than $ 4 billion and owns the Boston Bruins), is touting his political and business experience. And Jacobs is embracing the Trump agenda, just as Collins has. The key difference, he says, is that Collins is now hamstrung by his legal problems, rendering him ineffective.

Jacobs began aggressively fundraising following his announcement, and his campaign now sits on a healthy $ 747,878, depending on July filings.

"I believe Chris Collins has done some good things for this district, but do not believe he can represent this district under federal indictment," Jacobs told POLITICO. "I think the district can use the tools, especially the ability to serve on committees."

Collins, who 's after his innocence, was stripped of his committee after the indictment was announced last August. He has not formally declared that he will make a decision later this year, but he has raised $ 500,000 from his own money to his mid-June campaign. That's left him with $ 665,243 in cash campaign.

Unlike his Iowa colleague Rep. Steve King, whose inflammatory comments have been criticized by Collins, party leaders say.

"While Congressman Collins will decide on re-election over the next few months," his spokesperson Jennifer Brown said by email. "He continues to be one of President Trump's best supporters, and remains effective in representing his constituents and working closely with the White House. … Should Mr. Collins decide to run this campaign?

Some have suggested he will use the campaign build-up to a negotiating chip with prosecutors, an accusation he recently refuted in a rare press event.

Regardless, a prevailing opinion among some states party leaders and other candidates is that of the Republic of the world, creating a wide open spot for a surefire Republican victory.

"I personally do not think it will be a candidate for reelection, and there's a variety of very qualified candidates, and some still want to get into the race," said GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy.

The two other declared candidates are attorney and judge Beth Parlato, Fox News contributor, and State Sen. Rob Ortt (R-North Tonawanda).

"I do not have anything to say about it except that it's a very negative situation that he's in," Parlato said of Collins. Parlato, who declared in late July, is painting herself as a political outsider who can add her voice to the small band of 13 Republican women in Congress. "For me, waiting to jump in this race until he makes his decision is really too late."

Greater Niagara County, the District's second largest population center, is located in the City of Genesee, Wyoming. and Livingston counties, portions of Erie, Monroe, Niagara and Ontario counties.

"It's a lot more gun clubs than country clubs," said Ortt, an Army veteran who earned a Bronze Star in Afghanistan and announced his candidacy in mid-August. "I know those voters, and I know the issues that they're concerned about. They want someone who's going to go in there, defend the president's agenda and we're not afraid to take a fight. "

Ort has had his own legal issues – in 2017 then-Attorney General Eric Schneiderman accused him of felony election law violations, but the case was tossed by an Albany County judge.

Another local GOP official said he spoke to just two other interested candidates just this month. Additional names high on the possible estate list include Republican Erie County comptroller Stefan Mychajliw Jr., State Assemblyman Stephen Hawley (R-Batavia) and Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia, Iraq War veteran who ran against Collins in 2012, when the incumbent won his first term.

"Niagara County Republican Committee Chairman Richard Andres said:" Obviously you do not want to wait too long if you are interested and something happens. "It was a very, very strange situation last year, and this will be just as interesting one to watch."

While there is no shortage of candidates eager to fill Collins' seat, it is not a given that he is too weak to survive. After all, he was managing to win last year even though his indictment was announced just three months before Election Day. 60 percent of Republican primary voters still view Collins favorably. Next year Trump's name will be at the top of the ballot – a boon for the party in a district where 81 percent of Republicans who have recently voted in a primary or presidential election said they favorably .

"This will be a year when most Canadians will be in line," said James Campbell, a University at Buffalo professor who specializes in political campaigns. "I think it would be an unusually strong democrat and an unusually divisive nomination battle to put us in the toss-up category."

Republicans did not have much time to triage the Collins' indictment in 2018, Campbell said, so it makes sense that primary candidates are coming out strong and local leaders are receptive to Collins' challengers.

But if the race widens too much, it could play against those seeking his replacement. And that's exactly what McMurray, the Democrat who nearly took Collins in 2018, is hoping for in round two, he said.

McMurray, a town supervisor who announced in August that he'll run again, does not buy the concept that the close margin in 2018 was an outlier due to the year's Democratic wave election and the fresh nature of Collins' charges.

He said he believes there are moderate Republicans in the district who have grown weary of both Trump and Collins, but that the current challengers look "fake" and "opportunistic" because they're taking advantage of Collins' precarious position.

"Every single person in this district knows who I am now," McMurray said. "They know I'm the guy who's standing up to Chris Collins first."

The National Republican Congressional Committee is not getting involved in the primary, but is not concerned about repeat performance from McMurray, NRCC spokesperson Michael McAdams said.

"There's a snowball's chance in hell that Nate McMurray can win with President Trump at the top of the ticket in a district he won by more than 24 points," McAdams said by email.

McMurray, whose $ 24,021 in reported cash is dwarfed by Republican candidates' funds, said he's not running out of time – it's a long time ago. stronger foundation of local and national Democrats who took a closer look in 2018.

The way he sees it, a crowded Republican field can only help.

"The primary is not next year, and they're going to rip each other apart then," McMurray said.