The spread of violence in the center of the country threatens the re-election of Buhari

A secular conflict over pastures in Nigeria that exploded into widespread violence may threaten President Muhammadu Buhari's chances of reelection in February.

The Buhari administration was unable to calm a crisis that saw at least 200 people killed in a June 23 attack blamed Fulani predominantly Muslim herders on a predominantly Christian farming community in a known central region under the name Middle Belt. This was the latest in a series of violent incidents this year that have left more than 1,000 dead and undermined public confidence in the government.

"Buhari's dull response to massacres in the Middle Belt will haunt him in the next election" Leena Koni Hoffmann, an African researcher at Chatham House in London, said by e-mail:

Buhari, 75, won the presidency for its fourth try in 2015 by building a coalition that delivered the Southwest and the Middle Belt, including some of the states most affected by violence, such as Plateau and Benue. The transportation of the central region could be more difficult this time.

"Weakness"

"The Middle Belt killings certainly create a major weak point for Buhari," said Amaka Anku, head of the Africa practice of the Eurasia Group. "If he loses the central belt, as he seems likely he will have to win more votes in the south to win the election."

Buhari also drew criticism because he is an ethnic Fulani like most breeders, who are increasingly competing with farmers for land and water. The conflict, compounded by climate change and the southward advance of the Sahara Desert, has intensified divisions in a nation of nearly 200 million people equally divided between a predominantly Christian south and a largely Muslim north and at least 250 ethnic groups.

Seeing more about the impact of climate change on the conflict

"People even blame me for not talking to them because I may look like one of them," Buhari said in an interview with pastor Fulani. with the family members of the victims in the central city of Jos, in the state of Plateau. "There is injustice in these slanders."

Emergencies and prayers

During this visit, Buhari stated that the security forces had done everything in their power to stop the raids. "But the way this situation is now, we can only pray."

Opposition parties hung on the statement to portray Buhari, a former military leader who came to the office promising a crackdown on the violence, as an incompetent leader who does not deserve In the incident, hundreds of armed men descended into 11 villages in a seven-hour shootout and then disappeared before the arrival of security forces , retaining a pattern of previous murders, according to the London base. Read more about the impact of weapons flows in Nigeria

Nigerian police said that its officers arrested about ten people for questioning and recovered five AK-47 assault rifles that would have been used it attacks. "Peace and normalcy have been restored in the affected areas of the state," he said in a statement Tuesday.

Military Overstretched

A major problem is that the army of 180,000 members is overwhelmed. He is facing the nine-year-old Islamist insurgency in the north-east of Boko Haram, which has left more than 20,000 dead and armed militants in the southern Niger Delta threatening the biggest oil industry. d & # 39; Africa. The troops are currently deployed in at least 30 of the country's 36 states.

"Given the multiplicity of conflicts in Nigeria, there are no more troops to deploy," said Cheta Nwanze, an analyst at SBM. Intelligence in Lagos, the commercial capital

Government critics say the security forces are not neutral, a perception fueled by Buhari's decision to keep key commands in the hands of compatriots in the North. Defense Minister Mansour Dan Ali has condemned some state laws aimed at limiting cattle grazing, accusing them of being violent and appearing to take sides with Peul herders.

"The widespread loss of confidence in the federal government and its security forces as neutral arbitrators is also a key factor in this escalation as it encourages communities to adopt "For the main opposition party, the People's Democratic Party, the situation creates an opportunity as well as a challenge," Nwanze said by e-mail

. But like the All Progressive Congress in power, it is riddled with divisions and many security issues in Nigeria have emerged during its 16 years of power. The key to his chances is the nomination of a candidate with a widespread call to challenge the president.

"I do not think losing the Middle Belt will be completely fatal to one's chances, but a lot depends on who is the ultimate opposition candidate" Anku of Eurasia said. "If the PDP can find a credible candidate who can excite the South and be competitive in the North, we will have a real electoral battle."