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Lukas I. Nantanga *

This article asks whether the agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) signed by 44 of the 55 African countries in Kigali, Rwanda, March 21, 2018 brings good news to Africa or not. However, it does not ask whether Africa needs such an agreement or not, although in the long run Africa needs such an agreement. But not now, as 44 African countries think

Free trade policies have been with Africa since 1884. The question is what is new in the Zone Agreement? Continental Free Trade Agreement (CFTA)?

Baffour Ankomah, editor of the magazine New African, invited Africa to celebrate the CFTA treaty. He welcomed the CFTA and at the same time expressed disappointment at some of the African countries that were unable to sign the treaty. His concerns are valid. But this time, a good point that he made in 2015 on Africa escaped him.

In 2015, he bravely said that Africa should "rebel" against "forced" free trade policies, trade liberalization and deindustrialization plans. continent. He also posed a valid question this year as to whether Africa can rebel against unfair rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), as the US did in the 1770s against unfair England.

on the right track of manufacturing and protection of the fledgling industry as what the United States of America have done. Britain did not like the United States even making a horseshoe nail.

Today, what is the difference between the famous rules of the WTO and the CFTA treaty? WTO-related trade-related investment measures (TRIMs) prohibit local content in Africa. This is the solution that countries like Namibia want to promote. But these countries are banned by the TRIMs.

The CFTA, in the end, promotes trade liberalization, privatization, political space and free trade, of which Africa has no control mechanisms in place. Now, what is the difference between the two?

CFTA is an extension of the free trade policies of neoclassical orthodoxy. To make matters problematic, the CFTA strongly calls for foreign direct investment (FDI), which Africa has not managed to manage in the past.

Nigeria has adopted a realistic approach to the CFTA treaty. It states that "we will not agree with anything that would undermine local manufacturers and contractors, or that could lead to Nigeria becoming a landfill for finished products".

It's a smart strategy. Manufacturing activities are the first things to master in all African countries. How many African countries add value to uranium, gold or copper? Can Namibia Export Finished Uranium Products to Malawi and Malawi Reciprocally Export Finished Goods in Gold or Copper to Niger?

Without a doubt, the CFTA will not be able to tackle the problems of manufacturing and infant industry protection. maybe by some other countries.

Yes, we do not need to reach this stage to be able to trade with each other in Africa. But the fact is that this desired level of manufacturing is behind by several years in Africa.

Africans must define and consolidate their catch-up strategies; to reproduce advanced economic structures, particularly in the manufacturing sector; to indigenize and hybridize their technological tools by surrogate graft practices in the same way, among others, Japan and Germany did; The protection policies of the strategic infant industry feature and embark on a free trade route when emerging industries reach maturity and are able to compete with continental and global companies.

Another serious question is how can the African Union launch such an ambitious CFTA plan while most African countries are enslaved by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? 39; WTO? Thanks to these institutions, many freedoms and commercial rights are denied to African countries.

These freedoms and commercial rights are not only denied in the manufacturing sectors, but also in the commercial fields. There are well-designed external mechanisms put in place by the now-developed countries to prevent African countries from manufacturing activities.

Dr. Yilman Akyuz, Chief Economist of the South Center of Geneva, Switzerland, listed some of these rights and freedoms. For example, in the context of the WTO-NAMA (Market Access for Non-Agricultural Products) negotiations, African countries are forced to lower their initial industrial tariffs. Under the WTO TRIMs, local content is prohibited and there are restrictions on the freedom to use policy tools such as the design of infant industry protection policies

CFTA is the # The completion of the process of deindustrialisation that began with the Morgenthau Plan. was implemented by the IMF and the World Bank through structural adjustment programs in Africa during the 1980s.

Now, how can Africans celebrate their own disappearance and the destruction of their savings? Africa is not in a battle to win free trade on the continent in the first place. Free trade is the last option, not the first option for African economies.

Africa is not fighting for the free movement of goods, in the first place, and services. Africa, in the first place, fights against over-exploitation and mismanagement of its precious natural resources.

Africa is recalled by the Tana High Level Forum on Africa Security in 2017 of this important aspect of economic development on the continent. Once Africa wins this battle, Africa will certainly celebrate it

The second celebration will be one in which Africa will win the battle for specialization in the production of raw materials. Africa is now fighting against the lack of knowledge and technological know-how, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Once this battle won, Africa would certainly celebrate

How many tons of uranium, gold, copper and many other precious and strategic minerals are shipped out of Africa by month or year in gross form? Africa has been shipping raw materials for years. Is Africa not in the battle to stop this culture?

Capital scarcity, poverty, unemployment, and inequality on the African continent do not result from the lack of free trade, but from a strong manufacturing sector.

The idea of ​​unifying the African people is noble, but not the appearance of CFTA – for the moment. Will the CFTA ensure that all finished products that pass from one African country to another are all of African descent? Is the CFTA road the way forward for Africa to move from poverty to wealth creation and this can not be achieved through free trade agreements?

The Morgenthau Plan and the establishment of international development policy would easily allow Africa to establish the AfCFTA because they know that the CFTA will only lead the Africa nowhere if it is to complete the deindustrialization of the continent.

The manufacturing route is difficult to follow. Great Britain prevented other countries from following this path as early as the 1720s. Many African countries know this very well.

Ankomah regrets that African countries are not serious because of their failure to sign the AfCFTA Treaty on March 21, 2018. On the contrary, African countries are not as serious in their own countries. Manufacturing should be the first treaty before the CFTA treaty

History tells us that free trade policies have prevented African countries from manufacturing due to strong global competition. Africa has been a laughingstock because of its inability to specialize in increasing raw material yields through manufacturing.

There is serious confusion in the discourse on the development of Africa. This confusion led most African countries to borrow as there was no tomorrow. Africa has not challenged neoclassical economic policies as China in the 1970s, India in the 1960s, Korea in the 1970s and Taiwan in the 1980s.

These four countries have challenged trade liberalization.

African countries are forced to accept monetary policies, forced fiscal policies, liberalization of trade, privatization in blatant contradiction with what the British refused to do in the 1400s, the US refused to make. accept in the 1960s.

Now, is Africa cowardly accepting policies that deindustrialise it?

* Lukas I. Nantanga is a social and economic analyst from the Oshana region, Namibia.