Oil is expected to stabilize in 2019 as OPEC and the United States offset supply problems: Reuters poll

Oil prices are expected to remain stable this year and the next results of OPEC and the US will face growing demand in Asia and help offset the supply disruptions coming from Iran, and elsewhere, revealed a Reuters poll Tuesday.

A survey of 44 economists and analysts Brent Brut LCOc1 averages $ 72.87 a barrel in 2018, 29 cents higher than the $ 72.58 forecast in the previous month's survey and above the average of $ 71.68 until the end of the year. now this year.

U.S. CLc1 crude oil futures were averaging $ 67.32 per barrel in 2018, compared with $ 66.79 last month and $ 66.16 on average until now.

This is the tenth consecutive month in which analysts have raised their oil price forecasts.

"We expect prices to remain broadly oriented towards the range in the second half of 2018 and 2019. On the one hand, the robustness of US shale gas production and market concerns about the US-China trade war will help limit prices, "said Cailin Birch, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"On the other hand, the recent drop in global stocks will make prices more sensitive to any geopolitical risk, which will prevent prices from dropping significantly below current levels."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries agreed to increase the offer at a meeting last month to meet growing global demand, but the group has not specified a clear target for the increase in production.

At the same time, US sanctions against Iran, which will come into effect later in the year, will lead to lower exports and help support prices, analysts said.

"Disruption of Iranian barrels will weigh on oil markets in the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2019, as there are few reserve barrels on the market that can offset a major disruption in Iranian supplies," said Edward Bell. .

The United States withdrew from an international nuclear deal with Iran in early May, throwing uncertainty over global oil supplies. Since then, they have been preparing to work with countries to reduce them.

Analysts expect a drop of about 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian production due to sanctions.

But they also said that current global trade tensions could hurt demand.

"A trade war will slow economic growth and oil demand, but will also lead to other classes of assets, mainly equities, which can have a negative impact on oil prices," explains Jette Jørgensen, Global Risk Management. Ltd said.

Analysts continued to see Asia as the main driver of demand, projecting an additional demand of 800,000-900,000 bpd this year and the next in the region.

"The market is facing different questions – is world demand slowing as a result of weakening global economic growth, will US production keep its pace, production in Venezuela will continue to grow? Does it fall? "Frank Schallenberger, head of product research at LBBW, said:" We are really ready to increase production up to 1 Mbps!