[ad_1]
By Jared Jeffery, Political Analyst at NKC African Economics
Monday evening, July 16, President John Magufuli told the country that his Revolutionary Party (CCM) would be "in power forever, for all eternity" , according to the news He was delivering a speech to mark the beginning of the construction of the Mwalimu Nyerere ruling school – a center funded by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the CCM and the Liberation (and Government) parties South Africa (African National Congress – ANC), Namibia (South West Africa Organization of the People – Swapo), Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola – MPLA) and Mozambique (Liberation Front of Mozambique – Frelimo)
those of the former South African President Jacob Zuma when he said that the ANC would govern "until Jesus comes" . However, if the trends of the last two elections continue (as suggested by a recent Twaweza poll), the wait may not be so long.
Asked which candidate in the presidential election they would vote for today. % told Twaweza in April that they would vote for the CCM. If this is correct, this would indicate a further decline from the party in power from 80% in 2005 to 63% in 2010 and up to 59% in the last elections in 2015.
[19659003PollstershaveshownthatthedeclineoftherulingpartywasnotanisolatedphenomenonApprovalratesforvillageneighborhoodandparliamentarianrepresentativeshaveallbeensteadilydecliningoverthepastsevenyears
Magafuli did not escape the decline in support either. its approval rating went from 96% in 2016 to the lowest ever recorded in 2016 to 55% in April
. The results of the survey will probably not please the opposition. The largest opposition party, the Democracy and Progress Party (Chadema), did not do well in the voter's question, with only 15% saying they would vote for his presidential candidate (in the last elections, 40% of the votes).
However, 29% said they did not know who they would vote for or refuse to answer. The poor performance of Chadema could be explained by the fact that he currently does not have a clear candidate that voters could support (Edward Lowassa would probably not be able to run the campaign again ). With a suitable person in the role, it is likely that the party would get the lion's share of the currently undecided vote.
Another interesting finding was that CCM support in rural areas, where it previously dominated, declined considerably and opinions
This represents a possibility for the opposition to extend its reach beyond beyond the pool of urban voters.
In addition to voting intentions, the Twaweza investigation revealed the effects of Mr. Magufuli and the CCM. Around 64% of those surveyed said opposition parties were less free to hold rallies and express their opinions (political rallies remain banned and Chadema's leadership faces charges of sedition ) and 62% said that on government mistakes or criticize the government had decreased.
The crackdown apparently increased the awareness of the need for strong opposition.
For two years, the proportion of Tanzanians saying that opposition parties keep the government on track between elections and development aid has gone from 51% to 64%.
Since his investigation titled "Speaking Truth to Power", Twaweza
The title of the survey shows that the organization knew that she would fight, but the point of questioning is a little ambiguous
. sensitive to the period during which respondents were interviewed. In April, the leaders of Chadema were assembled and arrested, so it is not surprising that sympathy for the opposition is strong.
Afrobarometer, another polling organization, asked Tanzanians if they approved Magufuli's performance between April and June of last year. (19659003) What matters in the end is the election results, and the last three have shown a clear decline in CCM dominance.
The CCM must govern forever, it seems that it should happen elections.
The events of Zanzibar in 2015 and the authoritarian turn of Mr. Magufuli suggest that we should not flatly reject this possibility.
Source link
