NASA's Asteroidal Revelation: How a 'little neglected detail' could impact the Earth | Science | New



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Asteroids are small rocky bodies that are usually found in the inner solar system, orbiting the sun. They are millions to fly in space and their collisions – called impact events – have played an important role in the formation of many planets. Apophis 99942 is a near-Earth spacial orbiting rock of a width of 370 meters that continues to pose a destructive threat.

The first observations of the space agency in 2004 revealed a probability of 2.7% of the potential impact on Earth in 2029.

Concerns increased after the significant increase in the probability at the end of 2004, setting Torino's impact scale record for a Level 4 threat.

However, during Amazon Prime's Steps to the Future, it was revealed that these fears were quickly dispelled.

The narrator detailed: "In December 2004, a 217 meter asteroid, named Apophis, worried specialists who feared a collision with the Earth in 2029.

"But the following year, the alarm was lifted.

"New observations show that Apophis will miss the Earth 32,000 km, so we relaxed.

"But maybe we were wrong."

The series revealed how scientists from the Cote d 'Azur Observatory in Nice have discovered something unique about Apophis.

Patrick Michel, one of the leading asteroid specialists in Europe, detailed what his team had spotted.

In 2010, he said: "We forgot a little detail, it's a keyhole – I drew the Earth with the moon.

"Apophis will go to 32,000 km. The distance between the Earth and the Moon is 400,000 km.

"The little detail that we forget is that there is a small area of ​​uncertainty 600 meters wide that Apophis could cross.

"If Apophis crosses it, it will crush on Earth in 2036.

"Otherwise, the Earth will be missing millions of miles."

Until early 2006, Apophis could still touch the Earth in 2036.

This possibility keeps him at level 1 on the Scale of risk of impact of Turin until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis goes through the keyhole was deemed very low and that the ranking of Apophis on the Turin scale was reduced to zero .

In 2008, it was determined that the keyhole was less than 620 meters wide and NASA reaffirmed that the risk of Apophis impacting the Earth in 2036 is 1 in 45,000.

Preliminary remarks by Gold stone In January 2013, the radar had effectively excluded the possibility of a land-based impact of Apophis in 2036, but detailed information on a future impact in 2068 has a 150,000 chance.

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