Nate Silver calls on Gavin Newsom’s strategy to leave empty candidate’s recall line “self-defeating”

FiveThirtyEight founder and editor Nate Silver said on Monday the strategy California Democrats are pursuing ahead of next month’s governors’ recall election is “self-defeating,” as incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom faces the possibility that he be removed from his functions.

The California Democratic Party is encouraging Californians to vote against Newsom’s impeachment but to refrain from choosing from among the 46 replacement candidates listed on the recall ballot. Newsom’s campaign has made similar recommendations in recent weeks.

On Monday, Silver responded to a tweet posted by a political reporter which suggested the strategy was “selfish.”

“It’s more self-destructive than selfish,” Silver tweeted. “Pretty decent chance that Newsom is recalled. Democrats could potentially retain the seat if they urged their constituents to rally behind an alternative Democrat, but instead they tell them not to vote for the replacement!”

Recent polls indicate California voters are divided over whether they want Newsom to stay in power for the remainder of his term or be ousted and replaced by a new person. According to a poll average compiled by FiveThirtyEight and updated on August 18, voters who want Newsom to stay in power lead those who want to by about 1.2%.

Most of the recall candidates who have received the most polls in recent polls are Republicans. Conservative radio host Larry Elder is said to be the frontrunner among Republican candidates, along with former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, businessman John Cox, state lawmaker Kevin Kiley and TV personality Caitlyn Jenner each has several points behind him.

Although the State Democratic Party backs Newsom, there are a few self-identified Democrats who also appear on the recall ballot. Kevin Paffrath, who is better known by his YouTube name “Meet Kevin” and who is identified on the ballot as an educator and financial analyst, has also gained traction among voters in recent polls.

If more than 50 percent of voters vote for Newsom’s impeachment before his term officially ends, he will be replaced by whichever of his 46 challengers gets the most votes. That person would then serve as governor of California until voters decide in next year’s midterm election who they wish to complete the next full term of office.

State Democrats mostly united behind Newsom and told voters how important they think it is to defend his seat. Since keeping Newsom in power is a top priority for the California Democratic Party as the Sept. 14 election looms, the party said voters didn’t have to worry about the ballot’s second question. vote and should focus their attention on the Newsom issue. deletion.

The California Democratic Party has asked voters to “leave the second question blank” in a series of instructions for voters. posted on twitter August 15th. Party Chairman Rusty Hicks reiterated these instructions to “vote NO on Q1 and leave Q2 blank” in a tweet from August 19.

Orrin Heatlie, the main promoter of the effort to remove Newsom from office, said News week earlier this month, the strategy seemed “a bit surprising” and hit it as a potential miscalculation for Democrats.

“If he is replaced, you would think Democrats would want to influence whoever they want to replace him,” Heatlie said.

But the California Democratic Party is sticking to its strategy, according to party communications director Shery Yang.

“It’s simple: the California Democratic Party backs Governor Gavin Newsom,” Yang said News week when contacted on Monday for a response to Silver’s tweet. “There are no other candidates ready to take on the challenges facing our state. Therefore, we urge voters to vote no on the recall and leave the second question blank.”