NBA Finals: Deandre Ayton’s troubles burned Suns, but Game 3 loss to Bucks went beyond

When Chris Paul sat next to Devin Booker for his post-game press conference on Sunday, he glanced at the box score in front of his teammate. Paul stared at the sheet of paper for 20 seconds, then grabbed it to take a closer look. Finally, a reporter asked him what statistics were coming back to him.

“I was watching my turnovers,” Paul said. “Watching the free throws. It’s a lot. It’s a lot to consider. But you have to look at the game as a whole.”

The stats paint a grim picture: The Milwaukee Bucks outscored the Phoenix Suns 73-48 in the second and third quarters in a 120-100 win in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Milwaukee scored 20 second chance points against two for Phoenix. Giannis Antetokounmpo went 13 for 17 from the line in his 41-point performance, and the Bucks attempted 10 more free throws than the Suns. And yes, Paul returned the ball four times, not a terrible number for a main ball player but an unusually high number for him, especially after spitting it six times in Game 2.

As the Suns prepare for Game 4, however, one statistic looms: Deandre Ayton’s 24 minutes and 23 seconds of playing time. Ayton started the game on a rampage, mixing up face-up jumpers with his normal finishes around the rim, but fouling issues left him languishing on the bench for about half the game.

Phoenix is ​​here in large part because Ayton played in his role in the playoffs. His presence became even more crucial when reserve Dario Saric tore his ACL in Game 1 against Milwaukee. The Suns were wiped out within 14 minutes of Frank Kaminsky on Sunday, and the little success they found in the playing area with smallball formation has not proven to be lasting.

It would be trite to say, however, that the Suns just need Ayton to get out of trouble the rest of the way. They do, of course, but Ayton’s fouls don’t take into account the fact that Booker shot 3 for 14 and Jrue Holiday eventually managed to make some shots. Ahead of Game 4, it’s worth taking a look at what went wrong for Phoenix and how Ayton’s absence relates to it. Let’s start with the offensive:

1. The corner of the suns 3 has disappeared

Outside of the third quarter stretch in which Cameron Johnson had an out-of-body experience and Jae Crowder rained down 3-point shots, the Suns weren’t quite the same offensively. They scored just 97.6 points per 100 possessions in the half court, up from 108.8 in Game 2, and their assist rate fell from 65.1% to 52.5%. The most striking difference, however, was the complete lack of Turns 3. Phoenix got 10 for 17 at Corner 3 in Game 2 and 0 for 3 in Game 3.

Part of this is probably due to Ayton’s troubles. He doesn’t take the 3 turns himself and create them the same way as Ben Simmons or Russell Westbrook, but he puts more pressure on the rim than anyone on the roster. When Ayton – a lob threat and elite finisher – rolls into the basket, the defenses tend to crumble. This is when the Suns put their opponents in the mix and find clean looks. More often than almost anyone in the league, these clean looks are around the corner.

Phoenix’s assist rate, however, was much higher with Ayton off the field than on the field in Game 3, thanks in large part to that Johnson-led run in the third quarter. That’s when the Suns split the Bucks with a five-strikeout attack. After giving up far too many open looks in Game 2, Milwaukee made a concerted effort not to help too much, and part of the reason Ayton left in the first quarter is because he was determined to stay out of the game. the rotation. Ayton got a dunk because no one helped him on any of his throws, and he scored at the post when the Bucks switched Holiday and Pat Connaughton on him.

Milwaukee stays out of the rotation, which is why there have been fewer 3-turns, and it’s not just because of Ayton. He’ll have to assert himself in a similar fashion on Wednesday, however, if Phoenix is ​​hoping to get the Bucks to change their game plan.

2. Phoenix’s offensive rebound is gone

The Suns don’t prioritize offensive rebounds, but they grabbed 11 in Game 2. Ayton featured four, including the one that led to a wide-open 3 corner with about four minutes left, which Paul qualified. bigger game. Of the game. Game 3 was another story – the Bucks collected 13 offensive rebounds to Phoenix’s six.

Ayton had two offensive boards, and if he had managed to stay on the ground, the Suns could theoretically have found more second chance points, especially when Milwaukee was playing without a traditional cross. They didn’t score a single second chance point when he was on the pitch, however, so the Bucks deserve most of the credit here. Milwaukee have been one of the league’s top defensive rebounding teams for three straight years, and Phoenix is ​​more concerned with the transition defense than the offensive glass crash.

3. Bucks moved the ball

The defensive end is where the Suns really missed Ayton. Kaminsky’s minutes were a disaster, with Phoenix effectively giving the Bucks open looks by blitzing Khris Middleton’s pick-and-rolls. The Suns moved on to an area after that, and while this initially disrupted Milwaukee’s pace, the Bucks eventually figured out that as long as they were patient and got dribbling penetration, they could find 3 spots. and easy layups. With the ball moving, they looked like a totally different attacking team than the first two games.

Milwaukee shot 13 for 34 from deep before garbage time and lift exclusion, according to Cleaning The Glass, and he had 28 assists on his 43 goals scored. Ayton was on the bench throughout the Bucks’ 16-0 run to close the third quarter, and the Bucks outscored the Suns 53-38 in the 18 minutes Antetokounmpo was on the field and Ayton was not. Without Ayton, Phoenix gave up the perimeter crisp looks and couldn’t match Antetokounmpo’s physique.

It should be noted, however, that the Suns started putting two on the ball against Middleton. before Ayton sat down for the first time. This defensive strategy is what gave Milwaukee’s offense the juice it needed, and even with Ayton on the pitch, the Bucks took care of the ball and generated a ton of assists.

4. Milwaukee dominated glass and paint

The Bucks scored 54 points in the paint and generally outscored Phoenix. Johnson made three fouls on Antetokounmpo around the basket, as did Jae Crowder. The Suns might have looked like the top team through two games, but the third made Milwaukee’s formula clear: beat Phoenix, win the possession game, and dominate the free-throw battle.

This game plan is easier to execute when the tallest player on the opposing team is Crowder or Torrey Craig rather than 6-foot-11, 250-pound Ayton. It’s no coincidence that the Suns fouled like crazy when he was on the bench.

But Milwaukee also reached the finish line at a good pace with Ayton on the court, and he scored the same number of second chance points with him as with him. In Game 2, in which Ayton played 42 minutes, the Bucks scored 54 identical points in the paint. The Suns had issues with Milwaukee on the inside before Ayton got into trouble, and the trouble exacerbated those issues.

“They were very aggressive, hit the line a lot more than us, kind of like Game 2,” said Paul. “So we have to try to build a wall somehow and try to stop the guys from scoring.”

Paul said that in the future, Phoenix needs to better protect Ayton. “It’s tough man, Giannis is coming in full speed like a running back,” he said, so the Suns have to get help to deter Antetokounmpo from attacking. True, but Ayton’s first foul was the only one isolated against Antetokounmpo.

In Game 4, the Suns have to worry about Antetokounmpo’s intimidating ball, but his rolls to the basket, offensive rebounds and transition play are bigger concerns. They need Ayton to play heavy minutes if they want to slow him down and the Bucks, but if they don’t play better during Ayton minutes, Milwaukee will tie the series. Like Paul said, you have to look at the game as a whole.