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The NBA Breakdown features data-driven analysis for each day’s roster using FantasyLabs tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a list of four NBA DFS games starting at 1:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Guard point
Stud
Damian lillard is the only PG priced at $ 8,000 or more on FanDuel today, and it’s a pretty tough player to analyze. On the one hand, you’d expect him to bounce back from a poor performance in Game 2 in which he scored just 22.1 fantasy points in 30 minutes in a resounding loss to the Lakers. On the other hand, it’s hard to predict how he’ll behave with that dislocated finger he suffered during the loss.
Commenting on the injury, Lillard admitted, “It’s just painful, a little tender to the touch […] swollen and uncomfortable. We plan for him to get up on 42 minutes so that shouldn’t hamper his opportunities, but it could hurt his shot. Considering these factors, it’s definitely in-game, but probably more suited to tournaments than cash games.
Value
The playmaker is a bit tough today: Lillard, Malcolm brogdon and Chris Paul Everyone is expected to play around 37 minutes or so, and then that’s a downfall for guys who can only make it into the 20’s. It makes these high end guys even more valuable.
Brogdon has the highest projected plus / minus as a FanDuel, and he’s managed close to double doubles in each of his last two games against the Heat. If you’re worried about Lillard and want to lock down a reasonably high floor, Brogdon is one of the safest options available.
Quick break
Paul isn’t as sure as Brogdon, but like the PG Pacers, he’s in a 0-2 do-or-die down situation to the Rockets. Paul is already playing great minutes with decent use; if his shot gets hot, he will be the GPP winner.
If you want a punt game, Markelle Fultz is a good $ 4,500 option on DraftKings. He has surpassed expectations in six straight games and has shown his ability to rack up stats everywhere.
Shooting guard
Stud
As usual, James harden is in a level of his own at the post: at $ 11,700 on FanDuel he’s over $ 3,000 more than the next guy Jimmy butler.
It’s a steep price tag, but it’s also difficult to fade a player whose floor is basically 50 fantasy points. He’s actually lacked value in both games in this series, but in DFS it’s a little less harmful for a guy on this floor than for someone who has real potential to misfire. Harden gave out the last set a bit more – which wasn’t particularly close – but we’ve seen him approach 40-50% usage when he needs it. This type of floor / ceiling combo is always in play.
Value
André Iguodala By no means is the sexiest game on the slate, but if you want to get in on the game today, you’ll have to cut costs somewhere. And he is a player who is close to the minimum on both sites and who should play 25-30 minutes. Usage of Iguodala will be low; but if he can get just a few flights and blockages, that’s all he would need to pay the value.
Quick break
If you don’t want to pay for Harden, Butler is a big consolation prize. In fact, the Heat Wing had the highest plus / minus thrown at DraftKings’ position. He has yet to shatter the value against the Pacers, but his use is solid and he should still approach 40 minutes.
Small before
Stud
Two players are in their own level at the SF post today: James lebron and Giannis Antetokounmpo. On FanDuel, they should both have the same value; the latter is more expensive but has a higher projection.
Of the two, Giannis was the most used player, but he carries a bit more risk today: he appeared on the injury report with a calf contusion. He’s listed as probable, so he’s very likely to play – and probably a lot – but there is some uncertainty in his projections. If the game turns into a blowout, the Bucks might be careful with him.
As a result, if you want to pay SF, LeBron may be the best cash game. Still, it almost goes without saying that both SF studs are incredible tournament options given their sky-high ceilings.
Value
Danuel House was a revelation in the last game, racking up 34.3 Fantasy Points at $ 4,200 on FanDuel. He scored 19 real points in 38 minutes of action. House was bumped up to $ 4,500 today, which isn’t enough for a hike: we project it for 34 minutes, making it a pretty easy plug-and-play at this post.
Quick break
Tournaments can be won or lost depending on who succeeds in that intermediate level: there are a ton of guys who could show up in tournaments in the range of $ 5-6,000, including Evan Fournier, Danilo Gallinari, Carmelo Anthony and Eric Gordon.
Of these, Gordon has been the best of the bunch lately, making him the likely cash game. But Gallinari could have the highest cap in a game to win for the Thunder against a beatable defense from the Rockets.
Update: with Aaron Gordon Ruled out for Magic, Fournier is now the best value of this group, although I still like the caps from the aforementioned players.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward is the shallowest position of the day: only 10 players are eligible on FanDuel. Anthony davis is definitely in its own level at $ 10,700, and it also has the best projected plus / minus of the bunch.
It’s not often that the most expensive guy is also the best value for his money, suggesting he might be a player to prioritize today. Its combination of minutes (projected for 37) and usage (projected for almost 28%) is unmatched among its peers. He’s reached value in both games against the Blazers, including one in which he shot just 8 of 24. That shows the word he has.
Value
Due to the shortened rotations in Houston, Jeff Green must have been playing huge minutes lately, for 32 and 37 respectively in Games 1 and 2. And he actually filled the box pretty well; this diversification is attractive for cash games as well as for GPP. At just $ 5,000 on FanDuel, he’s gravely undervalued for his role.
Quick break
Bam Adebayo has been hit or miss lately, which probably puts him out of consideration for the cash game. In Game 1 he went 17-10-6, showing his full play, but in Game 2 he only accumulated 28 fantasy points. Most worryingly, he only used 11% of the Heat’s property while on the floor. We’re expecting that to increase today, so if you want to snap a shot and differentiate yourself from the field by disappearing AD, Bam is a good option for that.
Center
Stud
There are two players priced over $ 6,500 today on FanDuel: Nikola Vucevic and Jusuf Nurkic. Of the two, the former has the higher plus / minus and has a more solidified fantastic role, especially with Gordon today.
He’s been on fire in the playoffs so far, scoring 35-14 and 32-10 lines in Games 1 and 2, respectively. With Orlando so slim in the front positions, expect Vucevic to be the focal point in Game 3 again. He is probably the top option in both cash games and GPP.
Value
Steven adams is a bit scary game against the rhythm and space Rockets, although they were a bit slower without Russell westbrook in programming. Adams is by no means a flashy player – he only took four hits in the last game – but his role is definitely solidified in a game to win, and his price tag is cool at under $ 6,000.
Quick break
Myles Turner took home 41.6 fancy points at a cheap salary in the last game, and he has a similar advantage today in a way other centers available likely don’t have. He’s pretty reliant on shooting for a tall man, but that’s okay for tournaments: if he hits three or four 3 points, he might differentiate himself with low property.
Photo credit: Getty Images
Pictured: Nikola Vucevic
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