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As expected, Zion Williamson of Duke is # 1 in my preliminary NBA 2019 statistical projections. Who's next? Before the lottery draw next week and the combination, let's update my projections for potential college candidates who have declared or are automatically eligible for this year's draft.
My statistical projections begin by translating the performance of the NCAA into the projected performance of NBA recruits, also taking into account the average regression of outliers. I then calculate the projected value over the first five seasons of the NBA by combining the rookie projections with age. In this version containing only statistics, I also add a consensual projection that improves the power of prediction by integrating the ranking of players in the top 100 rankings of my colleague Jonathan Givony.
I introduced two key adjustments to projections last year. First, I'm now incorporating the translated performance into the Nike EYBL with statistics compiled by Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Info. Secondly, I am now adjusting to the replacement level per position to account for the surplus of large, productive men entering the league.
For more details and previous projections, see a more detailed explanation. Otherwise, let's go to my top 30.
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