Do not count on anything after the halfway point: Trump remains Trump

American Cyber ​​Command launched a campaign against him. According to US media reports, Russian hackers are receiving a message in recent days announcing that they are being monitored and that they should not be disturbing in the congressional elections on Tuesday, November 6th.

That Russian pirates are impressed by the American Post the government is uncertain. A hacker could easily read an encouragement in an email from a foreign power.

There is no doubt that the interest of the superpowers competing in the United States midway through is great. A Russian was accused of conspiracy against the United States because he allegedly tried to influence voters through social media. And President Trump accused China of interference at the end of September. China, for example, buys advertising space in states where many Trump voters live to denounce Trump's sanctions against China.

But do elections really matter for the rest of the world? Trump now reigns with the support of both Houses of Congress. The Senate will remain Republican according to the polls. The House of Representatives could become a democrat – or just not. Who dares to go to the US ballot box?

But suppose the Democrats win the House. Will Trump become more fluid with China, with the UN or with the European Union? And what if the Republicans carried it?

A democratic house can make Trump more difficult, even with impeachment. A hostile House basically means a weaker president. But do not count on anything. "The big losses in mid-term elections often result in an adjustment of the presidential agenda," political scientist Colin Dueck said. "But in foreign policy, the presidents reacted to this loss by pursuing with vigor and determination the course they followed." Iraq), which applied to Obama (Iran agreement).

If the Republicans win it, then Trump can go on for two years and a win would strengthen him all the more so since he is convinced that he is engaging in the right direction.

A Republican victory could have another effect. For two years, the world has been trying to determine whether Trump's nationalism and upheavals, his attacks on the international system and the EU, are an exception or whether they will become the new rule. In Europe, diplomats presume that the Atlantic band will survive a Trump mandate, but that eight years of Trump would completely change the world order. A win next week makes Trump a more realistic eight-year scenario.

For Europe, this should mean that a real job is being done on a more independent role on the world stage. The French president's disappointment with Belgium's decision to buy American and non-European warplanes has clearly shown how far the EU is. It will never be anything with a strong Europe, Macron grumbled. And the gradual departure of Angela Merkel does not have the effect of helping the EU make rapid progress.

Even though the US elections do not have a major influence on Trump's foreign exchange dealings on Tuesday, they could change the international dynamic.

Geopolitical editor Michel Kerres and expert in Eastern Europe. Hubert Smeets has written alternately on the world order of failovers.