"We start at 2.4% and we finish there"

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio looks around him. Is there a frontal collision with Brussels? "We want to sit around the table and explain our intention." Does anyone who is not directly related to the government say that the government is counting on next year's budget? Our sums are fair, "said Di Maio, leader of the populist Five Star movement. The Italian government will not pump, he says, but says: "This budget lays the foundation for the changes that will become visible in 2019. More work, less poverty."

This Tuesday, Rome must respond to the letter Last month the European Commission found that Italy did not adhere to previous agreements aimed at further reducing the budget deficit. Brussels is asking for changes. In a conversation with foreign journalists last Friday, Di Maio first said: we are not changing anything. And then: "But …"

What does not change is the intention to raise the budget deficit to 2.4% of gross domestic product. According to the multiannual agreements concluded by the previous cabinets with Brussels, the deficit should have been reduced to 0,8%. Both parties in the coalition want to spend extra money for two major election promises: early retirement and the establishment of a form of assistance.

At least three times, Di Maio implores that this 2.4% is an upper limit. "This is the maximum, we will emphasize this in the dialogue with the EU.In the past, we had cabinets with a deficit of 1.8% and 3%. We say: we start at 2.4% and we end up there. "

Read also the question: What can Europe do now that the Italian budget" deviates considerably "?

To emphasize this, says Di Maio, the government will also inform the European Commission of the measures it will take if the shortage threatens to worsen it.

This is a first guide. He also asks to understand: "We have only been working for five months." Next year, it will be possible to reduce costs, he said. "There is a lot of waste and at least two hundred useless laws will be abolished, all of which will spur growth."

The turmoil over government plans in the financial markets led to an increase in the interest rate that the Italian government must pay on its huge sovereign debt representing 131% of the GDP. Now, Rome pays about three percentage points more than Berlin. This difference (the difference in interest rates) was still below 1.8 percentage points this spring. During the debate on the parliamentary budget, which continued this week, the Deputy Director General of the Italian Central Bank said that this had already resulted in a cost increase of 1.5 billion euros. If this continues, it will cost 5 billion euros next year and 9 billion euros by 2020.

"People's Budget"

Di Maio and his ally Matteo Salvini, chairman of the anti-migration party Lega and deputy prime minister, have previously described widespread warnings of intimidation attempts by an international political and financial elite who sees nothing in it. budget of the people ". Di Maio now chooses a different tone. "The spread will diminish once we have developed our plans for pension reform and assistance. For this, seven and ten million euros respectively were reserved in the budget, but the how and what remains to be completed. A number of Italians have already calculated for themselves that it is not advantageous to retire if you worked for 62 years and paid pension contributions to the state for 38 years, as the government proposes. And about the help with the obligation to apply, Di Maio said: "We have set aside nine billion euros on this budget for three years, but I do not believe that this amount is necessary each year. "

Despite the enchanting tone, many Italians are not sure savings. And if the firm does not come out financially? The memories of the night of 9 to 10 July 1992 are still alive. The cabinet of the time, even in bad weather, then decided to raise 6% of all bank accounts to cover needs. Swiss banks say that more and more Italians are opening an account to secure their money.

The Minister of Economy and Finance, Giovanni Tria, is an independent professor who tries to mediate between Salvini and Di Maio, on the one hand, and the European Commission, On the other hand, in the hope of being understood in Brussels. Italy did not grow at all in the third half. If we were to do what Brussels wanted and aim for a 0.8% deficit, "with a slowing economy, it would be suicide," he said late last week.

During a short conversation, the economist Carlo Cottarelli, critic of the government and, in May, possible prime minister. "I do not fear the reaction of Brussels.In the end, the Commission does not have as much weapons.What I fear most is the reaction of the markets.The spread has already increased. It will be difficult to carry out an expansive policy with the additional costs associated with this higher interest rate. "

Conversations within the Eurogroup about more were difficult at the beginning of the month. Read also: Italy would like to remain as clumsy as possible