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After 595 days of negotiations, the British and the EU reached a tentative agreement on the departure of the United Kingdom.
On Wednesday, two o'clock in the afternoon of the British time, May convened an extraordinary Council of Ministers. She will present the result of the negotiations to her ministers. Tuesday night, they could already see the interim agreement and the Prime Minister has spoken with some important ministers.
Brexit is now entering the next phase. It is no longer an agreement between the negotiators, but an approval of their work. A qualified majority – 20 EU countries representing 65% of the population – must agree
A European summit of heads of government will meet around November 25 to approve the agreement. The House of Commons and the House of Lords must decide on the outcome, possibly for the Christmas break. Finally, the approval of the European Parliament is required. The Brexit will then take place on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 UK time.
What is agreed in substance in "the final phase" (dixit may) of the last days is not clear. The agreement is composed of two parts. There is a comprehensive and legally binding exit agreement that governs how the British leave the EU. And a shorter explanation is needed on how the EU and the British continue to cooperate after Brexit. It is a political declaration on complex issues such as future trade relations and a possible new agreement on security and defense. The British and the European Union will agree to discuss it in the years to come.
Much was already known about how Brexit is organized. There are partial agreements on the mutual rights of citizens, the final settlement and the need for a transition phase. Especially until the end of 2020, all the rules of the EU will remain in force, so that the British can organize the tasks that the EU accomplishes at the national level and that companies can prepare themselves.
The last obstacle was the question of the Irish border. The British and the EU agreed that the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland should remain "invisible". We are organizing this later in a trade agreement after Brexit, initially declared the British. However, the EU has asked May to agree on an urgent solution before the resignation, which should ensure that no customs controls are carried out at this new external border of the EU. the EU if the desired trade agreement was not to be concluded.
This emergency solution probably means that the United Kingdom as a whole is becoming a customs union with the European Union and that Northern Ireland continues to respect the rules of the European internal market. For example, no border control is required.
Among the Conservatives, the Brexiteers fear that, if they are members of the Customs Union, they respect too many Brussels rules. It would only be acceptable if the British could terminate the agreements independently. It was difficult for the EU. The Guardian reports that an independent arbitration committee is set up in the form of a compromise assessing whether the agreements can be terminated.
It is a fragile agreement. May encounter political resistance at any time and feel obliged to return to the Brussels negotiating table to adjust the agreements, in an extreme attempt to avoid political chaos in the United Kingdom.
Comments London / Brussels p. 4-5
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