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A Brexit without agreement is more disastrous for the United Kingdom than the economic crisis. As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) could decline by 8% and housing prices could fall by 30%, announced the Bank of England in its own report released Wednesday.
The British central bank also claims that this scenario will reduce the pound sterling. to the value of the dollar, while the currency is now worth about $ 1.28. A Brexit without agreement would also result in inflation of 6.5% and interest rates of 5.5%
. This could result in the worst collapse of the British economy since the Second World War. A bank stress test shows that UK banks are in any case able to withstand such a shock.
If the British agree with the outcome of negotiations with British Prime Minister Theresa May, the pain will be slightly less. In this scenario, GDP is also expected to fall by 3.8%.
Nor does the British government see any agreement as a catastrophic scenario
The Bank of England's catastrophic scenario regarding a walk-in Brexit on an official government analysis British. He went out earlier Wednesday.
In the worst case, according to this scenario, the GDP would be nearly 11% lower in 2034 than the one in which the UK would stay with the EU.
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