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This is demonstrated by a study conducted by the British government under four different scenarios for a brexit. In the darkest scenario, there is no Brexit Agreement or Agreement on Immigration
. This scenario is the closest to the consequences of the current draft agreement, which was only concluded last week. The economic consequences of the current agreement concept have not yet been calculated.
In addition, the possibility of the UK having a similar relationship with the EU, such as Norway, was examined. In this case, the British would remain an integral part of the EU's internal market, with the free movement of people and goods. This would result in a shrinkage of more than 2%.
The rejected plan is also examined
Finally, the consequences of the May plan on the brexit, as it was in July of this year, were examined. In this case, there would be a contraction of almost 4%.
Incidentally, this is not a very relevant thought experience. This plan was almost immediately withdrawn by Michel Barnier, the European negotiator of Brexit, and will never become a reality.
Parliament Pushed
Still, the analysis shows that May's agreement with the European Union assure her that this is the best possible outcome for the job market and the British economy. "With that, we proceed to what was voted in the referendum," May told parliament.
There, she defends the agreement in the coming days. It will be voted on December 11th.
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