A national referendum in two years, President Trump

1 What is Voted and What Can Change

This Tuesday, America will vote for the National Congress (part of the Senate plus the House of Representatives) and for the governors of states and cities.

The Senate is about one-third of a hundred seats every two years. Republicans defend nine and Democrats no less than 24 (two independent senators voting with Democrats are also eligible for re-election). In the Senate, Republicans currently have a slim majority of 51 seats.

To ensure Senate security, Democrats must therefore win at least two seats. The opportunities lie in Arizona and Nevada, while Democrats in Republican-dominated states like West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and Indiana are vulnerable. The chances of Democrats procuring the Senate seem minimal.

The 435 seats at the House of Representatives are in play Tuesday. Republicans now have a 235-seat majority, compared to 193 for Democrats. Seven seats are vacant (five because of the departure of the Republican deputies, two because of the departure of the Democrats). For the House to be in its hands, Democrats must make a net profit of at least 23 seats. According to the pillars, many of the races fighting side-by-side are held in outlying neighborhoods that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but the incumbent is a Republican. However, polling stations also predicted that Clinton would be victorious in 2016.

Governors govern states with local conventions and are therefore often more important to the population than Washington. Currently, 33 states have a Republican as governor and 16 a Democrat. About 35 governorates are elected, and Republicans must defend the most: 26. Some of them are found in tipping states like Ohio, Nevada, Michigan and the United States. Florida.

Nearly all states hold local elections in Congress. so for the state government. Republicans now having 26 congresses, Democrats also have a lot to gain at this level.

In hundreds of cities, there are mayoral elections .

2 How are elections important?

US voters have been allowed to vote for the first time in 2018 since Donald Trump's victory in 2016. They take place while the country is under high tension. Politicians describe the other party as a threat to the country. There have been political attacks in recent weeks: the attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue and the incentive bombs sent to prominent Democrats. The president regularly throws oil on the fire.

If House of Representatives passed into the hands of Democrats, it would mean a severe restriction of Trump's power. The House is likely to launch a wave of investigations with the president under the leadership of the Democratic Party. The fact that the Democrats also obtain the Senate is not likely. If the Republicans retain their majority in the Senate, they can continue without fear by appointing federal Conservative judges. In addition, if everyone dominates the Congress, the parties will be forced to cooperate further, which can be made possible in politically insensitive areas, such as infrastructure.

The elections of governors are important for the future. decade. This is the case: the governors elected on Tuesday are still in power when the census takes place in 2020 on the basis of which new electoral districts will be signed. Governors control district maps. Over the past decade, constituency manipulation has been a source of great concern in various states, particularly in Republican states.

With regard to congresses in the United States, the Democrats lost power at the local level. Given the current enthusiasm of voters and low Trumps ratings, polls predict they will regain ground. This would increase state resistance against Washington.

3 Who pays all this?

The cost of political campaigns in the United States has continued to increase since a Supreme Court decision abolished the limitation of donations to the union and corporate campaign in 2010. The Independent Center for Responsive Politics provides for , based on the costs incurred up to the end of October, that these medium term expenses will cost $ 5.2 billion (4.3 billion euros). The previous record dates from the mid-point of 2014: 4.2 billion dollars (3.5 billion euros). Because the Democrats have more to gain and their constituents aspire to change after nearly two years of Trump, they managed to collect more donations this time: 2.5 billion euros against 2.2 billion for Republicans. Democrats are at the forefront of small private donations.

By far the most expensive race is the Senate race between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O'Rourke in Texas. Together, they raised more than $ 110 million. The lion's share of this amount, $ 69 million, was recruited by O & # Rourke, particularly among individuals.

However, large donors have much more influence. Conservative casino mogul Sheldon Adelson (113 million), transport mogul Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein (39 million) and Stephen Schwarzman (12.8 million) of the Blackstone investment fund are among the conservatives. Progressive candidates received large amounts from former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer ($ 50.7 million) and billionaire and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg ($ 38 million).

4 What else should you watch out for?

The accumulation of these mid-term courses has seen a number of remarkable developments. It is only after Tuesday that we will know if they are also translated by new decision makers.

The increase from to mid-term is generally lower in the United States than in the presidential election: generally 40% is not achieved. In some states with very exciting races, such as Florida, Texas and Georgia, an unusually high number of advance votes has been published. It remains to be seen who will acquire the preponderance. Is it the Democrats who, indignant at the Trumps policy, will go to the polls in large numbers? Or Republicans who are satisfied with Trump's job growth and nationalist rhetoric? Will the president convince his supporters of the economic prosperity and alleged threat of the migrant caravan?

Diversity on ballots is greater than ever, especially on the Democratic side. A record number of female, non-white and open LGBT candidates are running for a seat. 120 Democrat candidates in the House of Representatives, however, oppose Republicans in positions in Republican majority districts. Will the number of women sitting in Congress be greater than the 23 currently in the Senate and the 84 in the House?

After a shootout at a school in Parkland, Florida, this spring, Americans from across the country have invaded the streets in droves to demand more control over gun ownership. A majority of the population is also behind that. The marches have resulted in targeted lobbying campaigns to elect candidates who withdraw money from the NRA's arms lobby. The Parkland School youth also launched an action to vote a group of generally apathetic voters, between 18 and 29 years of age (54 million Americans). In some states, such as Nevada and Florida, they have already registered a little more often. Of the other " candidates in the sense of firearms " will they come to power? Or are the biggest protests against gun ownership still without consequences in a generation?

5 What else on the ballot?

In 37 states, voters can also speak directly on political issues Tuesday, with a total of 155 referenda . The most important referendum is in Florida. The ballot proposes to give to no less than 1.4 million ex-convicts their right to vote. In 34 US states, voting rights for prisoners and former prisoners are limited. In three states, Iowa, Kentucky and Florida, people with criminal records never come back. Florida now wants to change that, except for prisoners with a murder or a sex offense among their staff. The measure requires at least 60% of the votes to enter into force.

Voting rights in fifteen states are included in the vote, for example with regard to the rules for the reclassification of constituencies, the obligation to identify in the ballot box and the financing of voting rights. in the countryside. In five US states, a form of legalization of marijuana for medical or recreational purposes was passed. It should be noted that a referendum was held in Nevada: voters voted in favor of abolishing a stamp tax . Unlike plasters and until 2007, condoms are not subject to a VAT exemption for daily medical needs.