African swine fever in Asia is the "largest animal disease outbreak ever recorded"

In South-East Asia, an outbreak of African swine fever is spreading rapidly. The consequences for the region are already considerable and the epidemic can reach unprecedented proportions.

1 What is the magnitude of the swine fever epidemic in the region? In August 2018, African swine fever, a highly contagious and deadly viral disease, appeared in China. This has never happened before in Southeast Asia. In recent months, the whole region has been infected slowly but surely. The dam has now disappeared.

Veterinary epidemiologist Dirk Pfeiffer said Thursday in the British newspaper The Guardian that it was "the largest outbreak of animal disease in the world." history". Willie Loeffen, an expert on African swine fever at the Wageningen Biovascular Research Institute, agrees. "You could say that when you see how many animals are involved and how fast the disease spreads." there are 2,607. Official reports are almost certainly an underestimate. According to reports and reports, Loeffen estimates that millions of pigs have already been slaughtered, perhaps 10 million. "There are rumors that it could reach 200 million hogs before the outbreak stabilizes."

2 What can be done about this?

Very little at this point. Farmers have no choice but to kill all their pigs as soon as a pig gets sick on their farm or yard. The disease is not dangerous for humans.

Previous outbreaks of other Asian swine diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease and classical swine fever, have shown that epidemics can not be stopped in this region. There are many small farmers who keep only a few or a few dozen pigs, with little attention to hygiene.

The situation of African swine fever is even worse because there is no vaccine against the disease. The simple fact of slaughtering millions of animals at the same time poses logistical problems and great suffering to the animals. A video circulates on social media, apparently from China, showing how hundreds of pigs are thrown into a pit to be buried alive. Pigs were also reported to have been burned alive.

3 What is the extent of economic damage?

This can be great for Asia. If 200 million pigs are actually killed by the epidemic, that's about one-third of the region's total hog population – and one-fifth of all pigs in the world. About 500 million pigs live in China. In total, 100 million hogs are held in the Southeast Asian region – Vietnam has a larger hog population than the Netherlands.

Read also: The pork fence of the Danes is an abomination for many Germans

Pork is a source of cheap protein in Asia. It is inevitable that price increases will follow. In April, Rabobank announced that it was expecting a 25-35% production loss in China, which would increase exports of European – and therefore Dutch – pork. The Netherlands exports 70 per cent of their pork.